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Gold Goes Mainstream, Sort Of

Daily Rap 02-19-2019

The market shook off a modest overnight loss in the SPOOs and got itself back to unchanged by midday. From there, it kept climbing and with an hour to go, when I had to leave, the Nasdaq led the indices on the upside, as it gained 0.5%.

Away from stocks, green paper was weaker, fixed income was higher, and the metals gained 1%, with the miners really kicking into gear. In certain cases, they popped quite hard, and in others they were "merely" strong. It was probably one of the better days for them versus the price of gold in quite some time. It does seem that more folks are coming to the realization that gold has a place in their portfolio, not the least example of which was The Economist magazine last week, which penned a constructive article...more

Last year's posts for Ask Fleck

Q: Do you have an S&P number that changes your bear market QT hypothesis? Thanks.

Fleck: No, let's see what happens.
(posted: 2/15/2019)

Q: "It's called modern monetary theory, MMT... i.e. printing money is painless, so let's print ourselves to prosperity".

Wasn't that the zimbabwe model? LOL.

Fleck: Essentially yes, but since they didn't have a PhD, economists who approved of this idea (or a fancy name for it), it didn't work. We are sooo much smarter. :)
(posted: 2/15/2019)

Q: Bill,
Why is PVG 2019 Outlook saying that they will come in at about 10.4 g/t? This is substantially below the 11.5 g/t of 4Q which in and of itself is lower than previous estimates. It is early morning and PVG has taken a substantial hit in price. At first I thought this was just do to earnings but they are higher than estimates but seem to be in line with the reduction in 4Q ounces of gold produced. I don't value gold miners based on earnings so I went to the website to see what they were saying about 2019. I'm becoming a little uncomfortable with the outlook but I can't tell if this is just a reaction on the part of management to the disappointing 4Q numbers. What is your take on the PVG Outlook?

Fleck: I'll cover it in today's column. I suspect they are being extra conservative, and the lower grade is a function of ramping up the mill and taking "lower grade" vs. what they had planned prior. I don't know why you don't consider earnings or cash flow, but that is your choice.
(posted: 2/15/2019)

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