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Fed Pause + No Deal = Not Much

Daily Rap 05-19-2023

There's no point in describing the market action prior to Powell's performance today, where he and his rival for worst Fed chairman of all time, Ben Bernanke, were pontificating on something or other. In any case, Powell stated that rates might not need to rise as high given the current stress in the banking system. In addition, at roughly the same time, it was announced that the debt ceiling charade had hit a speed bump.

That caused markets to react, as the stock market flipped from modestly green to modestly red. From there the market chopped sideways before finishing with the small changes that you see in the box scores. Away from stocks, after its recent run, green paper was weaker while fixed income was flat and the metals caught a...more

Last year's posts for Ask Fleck

Q: Hi Bill, could you help me understand the nuance or implication when a mining company files for "a mixed shelf offering up to" some set dollar amount? Is it usually bad news for the shareholders? Does it automatically mean the miner intends to take on debt? Thank you.

Fleck: They are just keeping their financial statements current. It doesn't mean anything usually.
(posted: 5/18/2023)

Q: I read somewhere that we should expect high inflation for many years. If that were true does that mean that S&P or Russell shorts cannot work for the foreseeable future? Thanks.

Fleck: Shorts may not work, but higher inflation won't be the reason why.
(posted: 5/18/2023)

Q: "Price-insensitive (aka Passive) investing:

…in 1989, when the Japanese stock market was trading at close to 100 times earnings, a passive index portfolio of global equities would have had roughly 40% allocated to Japanese equities."

- Rudy Havenstein

Fleck: Sorry, but that isn't too relevant and probably isn't the real issue. The passive dominance problem is its size versus the U.S. stock market.
(posted: 5/18/2023)

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