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Nothing Much Happened

Daily Rap 04-17-2023

Through midday the stock market was not very far from unchanged, and in the afternoon the indices flipped into the green with small gains.

However, what matters is what the upcoming slew of earnings reports look like and how the market responds. Given the state of the economy, I think people have gotten rather complacent about what's possible on the earnings and margins front, but we will soon have a lot more information on that topic.

Away from stocks, green paper was stronger, while fixed income was quite heavy. That combination appeared to pressure the metals, as silver lost over 1% compared to less than 0.5% for gold, with the miners a bit weaker as well.


Last year's posts for Ask Fleck

Q: Fleck - Sent yesterday but maybe u did not receive

I was wondering about all the volume and move in ngd? i know of new management but this has been a really good high volume move---or maybe just because gold has awakened? Thanks

Fleck: I'm sorry, but there isn't an answerable question here. Can you please be clearer?
(posted: 4/14/2023)


Q: Have you sold any of your trading positions into this rally yet?

Fleck: Nope.
(posted: 4/13/2023)


Q: Thanks to the reader who posted the article re Japan.

More anecdotes starting to appear (maybe I'm searching too hard) about Japan and the changing mindset in capital markets (more shareholder friendly, capital allocation rigor, etc).

I'm more focused on looking at companies in that market which have western style management teams. Few and far between but came across two in particular - one that did an acquisition back in 2011 of a US company which has turned into its key driver and then another which has a significant US public company as the main shareholder. What I noticed was that both these companies have better capital return policies than most other domestic companies, ROIC/ROE/Growth significantly better and they actually grow! A lot of these companies that trade below P/B of 1x don't grow. You can take the Buffett approach of buying cheap below book or Munger approach of paying a bit more for quality...

All that said, I think a big driver of the overall return is still going to be getting the direction of yen right. And I have no clue.

Fleck: I think the yen will rally hard if/when they stop YCC.
(posted: 4/13/2023)


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