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Miners Trick and Treat

Daily Rap 10-31-2019

Last night, three miners that I have positions in reported: Equinox, Alamos Gold, and Pretium. The former were both fine and don't really require a lot of discussion. Pretium, however, dropped a bomb in that the grade was 9.1 grams per tonne versus expectations of about 12, and the implications of that were less gold produced and higher costs.

The problem, of course, is that two weeks before the quarter ended, management reiterated its guidance. In other words, they misled everybody. The explanation in the press release about what exactly occurred didn't really make sense to me, so I'm not really sure what happened, but management has no credibility now. Having said that, if the company can produce 400,000 ounces per year (based on 9 grams per...more


Last year's posts for Ask Fleck

Q: Deflation Watch 2020: I just received notice from Blue Cross Blue Shield that my 2020 monthly premium is ...... drum roll, please .... increasing by 14.94%

Somebody please alert the Fed that inflation = a higher cost of living

Fleck: Great point.
(posted: 10/30/2019)


Q: There seems to be a disconnect between what Mr. Skin and MSA believe. Mr. Skin thinks the market is mostly safe until the election, whereas MSA thinks the risks are increasing for a big downside.

How do you reconcile these opposing views?

Fleck: MSA has said IF the market declines much, it could trigger some serious downside momentum, and that the new highs have been labored. But for his work to matter, we need some downside, which we have not seen.

So they could both be correct, if we keep grinding higher.
(posted: 10/30/2019)


Q: Bill,

You missed an opportunity! In response to the reader commenting about the astronomical increases in his property taxes and health insurance premiums, you forgot to point out how convenient it is that neither one of those makes it into the official measures of inflation! (Even though they represent probably 25% of median income).

And even worse, if my memory serves me correctly, the healthcare premiums cause DEFLATION in the wage growth data because they aren't included (and employers can't raise wages due to healthcare cost inflation).

Fleck: Thanks for having my back, well done :)
(posted: 10/30/2019)


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