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The Amazing Resilience of Insanity

Daily Rap 06-26-2018

The market continued yesterday's rally/stabilization attempt and the indices were 0.2% higher through midday. In the afternoon, the indices pushed higher and with an hour to go, when I left, they had gained about 0.5%.

Away from stocks, green paper was higher, fixed income was ever-so-slightly lower, oil gained 3%, while the metals were lower to the tune of about 0.4%. The miners were very firm, as they continue to be more resistant to declines than they have in the past.

"I Fear I'll Do Some Damage, One Fine Day" I've often made the point that crazy or seemingly inexplicable trends or notions can last far longer than they ought to, and of course that is part of how the "crowd" gets convinced that anyone pointing out the craziness...more

Last year's posts for Ask Fleck

Q: My bank statement reminded me the other day about my renewal for Fleck. Today's Rap reminded me why. What a great rap, seriously.

Fleck: Thank you. Glad it helped.
(posted: 6/25/2018)

Q: Fleck,

I cant remember having a selloff of this magnitude where gold didnt participate and TLT didnt participate more. Does the market feel like the Fed won't blink? Or is there something bigger going on, ie China and Russia selling treasuries to put the pain to us through a stronger dollar?

Fleck: Sorry, I don't think I get the question. The stock market has not fallen far enough yet for the Fed to blink.
(posted: 6/25/2018)

Q: Hi Bill,

The downside looks ripe but as noted this week some savvy investors expect a US stock market meltup which is possible if tricky Trump and China decide more trade is better than less. Trump is known for making sharp turns and he may take the political prize holding up some agreement showing MORE trade for US products and services.

Perhaps prudent to wait longer to see what trade wars, or parties, start to develop?

Fleck: I'm only making a small stab, as I said, and it may not work. But Trump also isn't a miracle worker, either.
(posted: 6/25/2018)

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