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The Bottom Dropped Out

Daily Rap 03-23-2018

Overnight Asian equity markets were rocked to the tune of 3% to 4%, I would imagine partially because of the news that China intended to respond to Trump's tariffs with some of their own. That also had our equity index futures lower for much of the evening, but the early going saw the Dow and S&P make small gains while the Nasdaq was red -- the latter because the Flying Pig was deemed unsuccessful at beat-the-number. (I suspect the guidance was a problem, but with a commodity stock like Micron, you never really know.)

From Flying Pig to Wounded Duck? I thought it was interesting that not only was Micron weaker today, so were the equipment stocks and some other semiconductor names. The entire chip sector has been one of the hottest subsets of the...more


Last year's posts for Ask Fleck

Q: Bill, The market averages are down 2.5%( Thursday close) and yet the metals and miners are down on the day!! The miners hitting 52 week lows in some cases! Surely you must be somewhat disappointed by this! If they cant move up today. will it ever happen? thanks

Fleck: Why should the metals be up just because the stock market is down? Metals are not a put on the stock market. They are protection against central bank lunacy and problems arising from their policies. As the stock market weakens and the Fed can't taper, it will illuminate that they are trapped and can only pursue the same failed policy. Thus, at some point, declining stock prices will help metals as they add meat to the story of failed central bank policies. Metals can benefit from falling stock prices, but not every day. The psychology must change first.
(posted: 3/23/2018)


Q: Hi Bill,

How are you setting trades up with respect to longs/calls pm miners, and shorts/puts indices, individual names, and US Tr (e.g., TLT)?

Still waiting for market sell off to see how US Tr behave before entering short/put positions?

Thanks

Fleck: I have no interest in being short bonds until after stocks crack and we get to see how far they can rally. I'm not shorting individual names (except AAPL) because research doesn't work yet, so I prefer Nazzie futures for now. I have the same miner positions I have had, more or less. If I sense a breakout over $1,350, $1,360, $1,370 is coming I will get extra aggressive, but not until then.
(posted: 3/23/2018)


Q: Hey Bill,

Any reason Silver has been so weak this year? At current prices I presume you are more bullish on silver than gold?

Fleck: Not that I know of. Bullish on both.
(posted: 3/23/2018)


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The bottom's in...