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The Flying Pig Gets Grounded

Daily Rap 09-21-2018

The market was mixed through midday, with the Dow and S&P a little higher and the Nasdaq slightly lower. After appearing to win at beat-the-number and seeing its stock price pop a couple of bucks after hours last night, Micron, aka the Flying Pig, was weaker and ultimately closed a couple of dollars lower, as the twin vices of oversupply and saturation (plus tariffs) are making themselves felt in the memory world.

Stop the MU-dness When I saw the news last night I thought it could have implications for other chips stocks, and it did, but only slightly. For the most part it would appear that the news was ignored and certainly deemed to be company specific, which is true for some chip companies, but not others. It is all part of the mindless...more


Last year's posts for Ask Fleck

Q: You have mentioned Equinox Gold in the past... Do you own it? If you do what are your thoughts on the purchase from NGD. Thanks

Fleck: Try the search, I have discussed it and I own a small amount - Ross Beaty is the chairman and has put plenty of his own money in at these prices... I'm sure if Ross did the deal, it's a good one.
(posted: 9/21/2018)


Q: Bill, Please allow me to clarify your answer on (9-14-2018) the NGD "new" CEO and the announced sale of the Mesquite Mine yesterday.

The subscriber did not mention the CEO by name, and there have been two changes recently
New Gold (NYSEMKT:NGD) names Renaud Adams as its new President and CEO effective immediately, replacing Raymond Threlkeld, a company director who stepped in and led the company since May upon the departure of Hannes Portmann.

You answered: "He is a capable CEO for sure, very good reputation."
1. I am just confirming you are referencing Renaud Adams. Is that correct?

2. NGD announced the sale of the Mesquite Mine for 158Million CASH.
Does this transaction improving their balance sheet, (but potentially reducing their sales) and the beaten down price create any interest for you to purchase NGD for a trade or a hold?

Thank you for taking the time to answer.

Fleck: 1. Correct.
2. Not at this time.
(posted: 9/21/2018)


Q: Hey Bill,

Given the only years out of the last 18 that have had negative returns in Q4 are 2000 and 2007/2008 (and those had big cracks in the first few months of the year), combined w/ Mr. Skin's observations that there is no real selling out there, why not get long the market into year-end in a risk controlled way (either via calls or hedged w/ puts)? After all, at its core successful investing is about anticipating the behavior of others...

Fleck: Because I know I will get shaken out on some setback. I have explained this before... You have to have conviction to be long anything, in any sort of size to matter, so I'd either make pennies or lose money. I did that at the end of 2017 with OSTK (in small size), and it worked because I understood the environment (I thought) and how to manage that risk, but now I have no candidates. Lastly, "anticipating the behavior of others" sounds like a new way to package "the greater fool theory." :)
(posted: 9/21/2018)


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