Daily Content
Fleck's Thoughts

The free preview lets you access all content over a year old – the Market Rap from one year ago today is posted below.

Subscribers get full access to premium site content such as the Market Rap and daily Q&A, with the opportunity to "Ask Fleck" your own questions.

Learn more about Bill and what's available on the site.

Trump Troubles Rattle Dollar

Daily Rap 07-20-2017

The early going saw the market attempt a push higher, but that was undercut by rumors that special prosecutor Robert Mueller had found some business angle for investigating Trump. Whether that is true remains to be seen. Nonetheless, the rumors took a little wind out of the market's sails, and trading seemed to nearly stop. With a couple of hours to go, when I had to leave, the indices were about flat.

"Double Rainbow!!" Away from stocks, the euro exploded higher euro, helped by the Trump rumblings, and perhaps by Draghi's comments (although I can't see why those would have mattered that much to the euro). Fixed income was slightly higher, oil was a nonevent, and the metals gained a little ground. In the land of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin...more

Last year's posts for Ask Fleck

Q: Fleck,
So much foreign money has flooded into our stock market, could the falling dollar precipitate withdrawals and be the catalyst for the next market crash?

Fleck: Sure, that is possible, though not too likely at this juncture.
(posted: 7/19/2017)

Q: Bill,

Congratulations on your IBM short moving in your favor. Nice call! I contemplated puts yesterday on IBM but had a hard time to engage given the frothiness in the FANG's. Keep up the good work.

Fleck: IBM is one of the few dogs that won't hunt... :)
(posted: 7/19/2017)

Q: I recently read a couple of interesting notes from Lance Roberts on revenue and sales growth as well as stock buy backs.

Since 2009, the reported earnings per share of corporations has increased by a total of 265%. This is the sharpest post-recession rise in reported EPS in history. However, that sharp increase in earnings did not come from revenue which is reported at the top line of the income statement. Revenue from sales of goods and services has only increased by a marginal 32% during the same period.

As CS’ strategist Andrew Garthwaite writes, ‘one of the major features of the US equity market since the low in 2009 is that the US corporate sector has bought 18% of market cap, while institutions have sold 7% of market cap.’

What this means is that since the financial crisis, there has been only one buyer of stock: the companies themselves, who have engaged in the greatest debt-funded buyback spree in history.”

Fundamentally Speaking: Earnings At Risk

Fleck: Thanks, but "only one buyer" is a stretch.
(posted: 7/19/2017)

more Ask Fleck...

The bottom's in...