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TSM Crushes Techs

Daily Rap 04-19-2018

The rally back to new highs that the bulls were expecting was interrupted today, as the market was lower from the get-go. The decline was led by the Nasdaq, which lost 0.75% through midday and which was hurt by the drop in Apple shares, its suppliers, and related companies.

You Half to See the Guidance to Believe It The proximate cause for this weakness was very negative comments last night by Taiwan Semiconductor, which was forced to cut its guidance because of weakness around Apple and, to some degree apparently, crypto land, although Apple matters far more. One dead fish surmised that, "TSM's Q2 forecast was very weak, with the iPhone driving a lot of the softness; estimates that the company's Apple-related revenues may plunge 50% quarter-on-quarter...more

Last year's posts for Ask Fleck

Q: Bill, I have been reading and hearing more positive commentary on the market on the recent advance. Have you done anything different lately and are you still looking for a failed rally? Thanks

Fleck: Done nothing, and yes I am.
(posted: 4/18/2018)

Q: From daily rap 4/17/2018.... “I bought silver futures”. What vehicle do you use? SLV?

Fleck: I bought silver futures.
(posted: 4/18/2018)

Q: FLECK: “I bought silver futures for the first time in well over 10 years yesterday”. [4/17/2018]

What are some of the metrics that got you interested? Gold/silver ratio? Commercial shorts?

Michael Oliver’s momentum?. I saw he is predicting if silver its $18.50 it will spike to $25.

Fleck: I think metals are poised to move higher pretty soon. The positioning in the futures market (CFTC data) convinced me (it is the best it has been in about 30 years) that the downside is manageable. Oliver's work doesn't really kick in until we get north of $17. In sum, I think the downside is limited/manageable and the upside is wide open, so I put on a trade.
(posted: 4/18/2018)

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