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Another Day, Another Rally

Daily Rap 02-17-2017

Once again overnight markets were uneventful, while the U.S. stock market was modestly weaker through midday. But in the afternoon it remembered that it is supposed to rally every day, and thus it did, led by the Nasdaq, as the Dow/S&P had to settle for flattish.

Away from stocks, green paper was stronger, fixed income enjoyed a bounce, and oil was a nonevent, while the metals saw small losses.

What Could Possibly Go Wrong? There isn't much more to say about what transpired today, as not much did. I must admit, however, that every time I look up at the news headlines I half expect the market to be shattered, given the all-out warfare between the media, Democrats, certain members of government agencies, and the current administration.


Last year's posts for Ask Fleck

Q: Hi Fleck - Gold as insurance recommended by Blackrock due to the current stock euphoria , do you think it's a driver pushing gold up?

If so, i believe it's an interesting development from Institutionals as stock prices continue to ramp up because i have no doubt gold will be up on the downside or in the next QE round as well.

BlackRock Backs Gold to Hedge Market Risk

Fleck: It can't hurt, but has it been a huge influence? Not likely, IMO.
(posted: 2/17/2017)


Q: I haven't had short exposure since October of last year. Just put some shorts on today (AAPL, SBUX, NFLX, UAL). Even though I am long super cheap stocks, I am getting worried about a correction taking everything down. Do you have an upside % that you feel is likely over the next 3-6 months if this beast keeps rolling? I have no idea, but would appreciate if you have any guess based on your trading experience.

Also, on PAAS: This is one of the only miners that I've seen that made it back to its 2016 high; was way ahead of the whole space. How does it NOT make sense for it to correct for any reason at all? Not really a good question but respond if you see fit and if I am missing something important.

Fleck: There is no way to guess at any move possible, up or down. We are so untethered that almost anything can happen. Don't try to apply logic at all. As for PAAS, what does the 2016 high price have to do with anything?
(posted: 2/17/2017)


Q: Bill, as I'm no expert at all in technical analysis, is there relevance to seeing a 2nd island reversal get established so soon after the first one (if it happens and after the first one was negated)? Or should we view each one in isolation? Thanks.

Fleck: I just think it shows how bulletproof the S&P has been.
(posted: 2/17/2017)


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