Often wrong, never in doubt. – Bill Fleckenstein

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Fleck's Thoughts

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Q: Bill - In the relatively short time I've been following you I can't recall your commenting on palladium. Am I wrong?

I was just looking at the palladium chart, and It's quite bullish. More so than gold or silver. It seems to me that if/when the pm's finally break out to the upside, palladium will probably be leading the parade.

Would you agree?

Q: Hi Bill,

No question today. You commented maybe a week ago that a trader friend of yours was selling rallys and buying dips in the metals market because it was working. Very timely comment on your part.

After watching them bounce around the last week on high volume, for no apparent reason, what a great environment for someone with the skill set to actively trade these things.

Enjoy your Thanksgiving.

Q: I know your theory is that at some point the market will drop and the Fed will come to the rescue. It will fail. Then, investors will start to realize the problems that the Fed created.

Why do you think that we are in this situation anyway? Why do you think that the markets have not reacted for years? I don't understand how the BOJ could buy most of the debt of the Finance Ministry and it does't create tremendous inflation? At what point is there too much debt?

The US tax plan would add 1.5 Trillion in additional debt and everyone seems to be like it is no big deal.

I realize that there are way too many questions to answer here, but maybe a little of your insight.

Q: "Continuing my observations on the lunacy of the current environment (e.g., the $450 million da Vinci), many of which would have qualified for the Mania Chronicles 3.0 had I decided to document them, yesterday a Parisian BBB-rated company (i.e., quasi junk) issued $500 million in three-year notes yielding -0.026%.
We have been peppered with so many absurdities, nothing seems absurd anymore, although you can be sure when folks look back at this period, they will wonder, "What were they thinking?" and the list of examples will be quite long."

Yet the most obvious choice, gold, goes ignored. So many examples of sky-high valuations, yet gold flops around. Why is the esoteric bid parabolic, yet gold goes unbid?

Q: Hi Bill,

GG is all coiled up and set up for a nice up move. Today was the 3rd time in the last month that it closed at a 13.40 high.

Perhaps, the metals today, like recent action in HYG, the Dax, and $Nikk, $USD, are all clues of some stock market weakness ahead and a move up in the metals.

The charts of the metals look to me like their corrections are over.

Q: Bitcoin and the Paper Millionaires

From Jared Dillian, paraphrased: "The definition of a bubble is when people are making money way out of proportion to their intellect and work ethic."

And usually you can't put $10 into something and sell it for $1000 without paying taxes. I'm sure the IRS has thought of this, I wonder if these "intellectual" millionaires have...

Q: Well the trap door is indeed opening!! The only problem being said door is under the metals and miners!!

Q: Just read an article about these young people who bought bitcoins back in 2011 and now are millionaries, and gist is how much of an investment genius they are vs. perhaps how lucky they are.

There is also story in article about how one person won't sell since he knows it will go up more and more. Reminds me of my brother who bought $500 share of Akamai stock at around $20 for IPO - and it went to something like $450 - but he didn't sell since he thought it would go up more. Or my cousin who owns a house in Ft. Laurderdale he bought for $350k. It was appraised by a Real Estate agent at $750,000 around 2006. A year later, when "value" had gone down to $700,000 he thought of selling but didn't want to leave $50,000 on the table, so figured he'd sell when it went back up (now its back to around $350,000)

So, lots of stories. But the reader who send in the comment that the bitcoin returns should be ours as Gold holders - that did hit a nerve.

Q: Hi Bill

Once you have your catalyst and decide to short a stock via puts, how do you determine what months and strike prices to buy? I'm sure it is different for every situation, but do you have some sort of a starting point?

Thank you

Q: Do you know of any website which lists gold stocks about to report?