Often wrong, never in doubt. – Bill Fleckenstein

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Fleck's Thoughts

Ask Fleck

Q: There seems to be a disconnect between what Mr. Skin and MSA believe. Mr. Skin thinks the market is mostly safe until the election, whereas MSA thinks the risks are increasing for a big downside.

How do you reconcile these opposing views?

Q: Bill,

You missed an opportunity! In response to the reader commenting about the astronomical increases in his property taxes and health insurance premiums, you forgot to point out how convenient it is that neither one of those makes it into the official measures of inflation! (Even though they represent probably 25% of median income).

And even worse, if my memory serves me correctly, the healthcare premiums cause DEFLATION in the wage growth data because they aren't included (and employers can't raise wages due to healthcare cost inflation).

Q: Thank you Bill for your response to the commenter who said: "Trump does not deserve the benefit of the doubt".

I agree with your point about the insane media polarization in the last 3.5 yrs. I'm an independent, but I had no problem watching CNN or reading the NY Times during the Bush I, Clinton, Bush II, or Obama admin. But these media organizations really started losing their minds once Trump got the nomination in spring of 2016. And I can hardly even stand to read them anymore due to the shocking level of bias, half truths, and one-sidedness. And I'm not even a big Trump fan. He certainly deserves his share of criticism, but the left media has become totally obsessed with Trump hate.

Q: FWIW, I am in complete agreement with your not-a-political rant MSM in nearly universally unwatchable. Did you see the lovely obit WashPo had for the "Austere Religious Scholar with wire-frame glasses"?

Washinton Post Obit

I think that says it all


Q: Great news out of Wesdome yesterday. I know the feeling is that management doesn't want to sell but do you think this news makes it that much more attractive for a potential suitor to come in and pay a decent premium to the current share price? If things play out both at Eagle and then Kiena there could be a lot of upside here.

Q: There are only a few "things" that really matter - at least until next year's
election day - after which a lot of "things" will suddenly "matter". Trump will continue to pimp the stock market (note today's tweet about how the "market" would be higher today). His complete fixation (obsession) with the so-called "stock market" continues to defy any and all historical precedents.

Next, add in the intimated Federal Reserve, staffed by "new era" people who were
"educated" by Greenspan, Bernanke, Mario Draghi, and the fools running "The Land of the Rising Sun". Finally, complete the mix with an unlimited number of "paid-to-play" robots, addicted to their career guiding benchmarks, headline reading "analysis", complete lack of critical thinking attributes, and we have what we need to "know".

As much as "purists" literally puke every time these variables rule day to day wiggles, both up and down, those same "purists" need to accept the new realities, cuddle up with the current versions of insanity, and enjoy the ride. When the ride ultimately ends (it ALWAYS does), we can go ahead and get our lobotomies, and look forward to the Beto O'Rourke presidency.

Q: Hi Bill,

A question regarding Pretium's head of exploration's recent share sale.

I'm not adjusting my positioning based on this, but am interested to hear your take. To me it seems telling that there does not appear to have been outsized additional insider selling by Pretium directors either in the immediate lead up to the head of exploration's sale, nor in the aftermath. If the head of exploration sold due to a specific concern, wouldn't one expect the other directors to be aware of the concern, which would likely lead to additional insider selling or is there something I am missing?


Q: Deflation Watch 2020: I just received notice from Blue Cross Blue Shield that my 2020 monthly premium is ...... drum roll, please .... increasing by 14.94%

Somebody please alert the Fed that inflation = a higher cost of living