Often wrong, never in doubt. – Bill Fleckenstein

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Fleck's Thoughts

Ask Fleck

Q: ?PVG- ?News or Noise?


Q: Having been managing money for 30 years, I'm beginning to take a new angle on the market (one must evolve). I think we are in the midst of a new age, the dawn of the machines. These machines eat human fear. They have one rule, buy fear. Fear is a human emotion. After all, the market has survived everything thrown at it over the years and is a compounding machine. The problem is that the human element has almost been squeezed out of the market. What will happen when there is no fear?

Q: bill: are you adding to your gold mind stock during this correction?

Q: Re.: "Sooo, could it be that actually having the "unwind" in "front page print" is all that is needed to "reprogram" the mindless herd "
Maybe the Fed has to actually start QT and not just swagger about it. Fact is: Fed assets as of January 1st 2017: 3.418 bln. As of September 13: 4.002 bln

Q: Bill, to your point on the market having lost its ability to discount future events, I wrote this piece for cnbc.com on Tuesday discussing the exact same thing and also threw in some Beatles lyrics after I saw Paul McCartney last Friday night. Feel free to share with your readers, https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/19/why-the-market-is-headed-for-a-brick-wall-boockvar-commentary.html

Q: Hi Fleck,

I'm honestly trying to figure out what to do with chunk of Canadian dollars (that I'm uncomfortable holding) and I have a very full gold position. Would you diversify into another fiat currency, perhaps some USDs, if you were a Canadian and don't trust just about anything north of the border?

Endless thanks!

Q: Hey Fleck,

I've read a few proponents (one being Jim Rogers) of the idea that in the next financial crisis there will be a mad scramble for US dollars, as so many open short/derivative positions will need to be closed out that are denominated in USD. If you could be a fortune teller for a second, how likely is this to occur in your opinion and may it only be temporary because of the likelihood of quick QE4 implementation?

Thanks as always!

Q: Hi Bill:
with reference to the purchase by an investor of 15000 GG Jan 15 puts you answered correctly that for each buyer there is a seller but we do not know (at least I don't) whether the seller was another investor or the market maker. How important is to know the difference?
Thank you

Q: Hi Fleck,

Thanks to you, Mr. Skin, Semi-retired fund manager and others who send questions and comments. I learn as much from their posts as I do from you.
The questions I had is Mr. Skin and others write that the robots and algos trading the stock market have allowed the market to drift higher. I recently heard on Real Vision that Jim Rogers said only 45-50 of the stocks in the S&P 500 are in a confirmed uptrend (above the 50 day moving average). My question is are the robos and algos only trading the indexes or those 45-50 stocks that Jim Rogers mentioned? My follow up questions is, isn't the limited leadership (45-50 stocks) late stage behavior of a bull market that will end soon? I believe something like this happened before the 2000 and 2007/2008 bear markets. Thanks in advance for your response!

Q: Hi Bill
In regards to QE currently and only temporally being replaced by QT (something I do not think any of us originally imagined would actually happen, but looks to be the case barring some type of exponential "event" &/or the stock market tanking before they actually enter into QT).... That said you stated and have stated if stocks move down the fed will reverse course in short order (I agree).... So if they reverse course in short order wouldn't say a 10% selloff be recouped in rather short order as well? My point is if the fed try's to reverse course n fails via a stock decline all they have to do is reverse course again with more QE and were right back to where we started.... I just cant seem to grasp the longer term bear market thesis with CB's continuing their path when things get tough.... Please do not scold me for being somewhat rhetorical in nature... Just trying to read the tea leaves...

Q: From Mr. Skin's commentary yesterday:

"these things are programmed to react, rather than using "critical thinking" skills. The same can be said about the "terrified" paid-to-play crowd, always looking over their collective shoulders, watching for the "boogie" man (lovingly named the "bogey" man). How these two dominant forces in the "modern" equity market can "miss" the obvious, namely the Fed's announced intention to at least attempt to unwind their nine year manipulation of the markets, is mind blowing. Apparently, "they" have always believed the Fed did not have the guts to risk deflating their precious bubble."

We all share his dismay at the failure of equity markets to react to these Fed moves. My question is why the metals markets seem to go crazy over these same benign, well telegraphed Fed moves? If I'm inclined to sell or go short prior to these "Fed Days", I always say to myself...."but everybody knows what she will say. Where's the trade?" And then, after the event, the gold and miners act like they were completely blindsided, while the Dow and S&P chug onward and upward.

Q: I liked Mr. Skin's mini-rant on BOJ and ECB/Draghi. It seems I've heard or read lately three or four people casually say that Europe essentially has been fixed and it's all good again. Huh?! Did I miss something; I'm retired now...have I been napping too much? I mean, I'm no heavyweight (I don't even read the Rap every day --mea culpa!)...but Europe is fixed? Good grief!

Maybe there were editorial retractions after I had to leave.

Q: Bill,
A sign of the top and rats are fleeing the ship?

I don't know if you follow Fidelity Investments - one Fund Manager was notoriously successful riding this Bull Market.

Fidelity rising star exits, leaving top-performing fund

Mr Gavin Baker has left the arena with OTC Fund holding the following as of July 2017

Security Name Market Value Assets
Apple, Inc. $1,268,610,383 8.0%
Alphabet, Inc. Class A $983,250,979 6.2%
Amazon.com, Inc. $825,495,648 5.2%
Activision Blizzard, Inc. $824,020,960 5.2%
Ubisoft Entertainment SA $677,872,545 4.3%
Tesla, Inc. $677,702,320 4.3%
Facebook, Inc. Class A $578,089,285 3.7%
Amgen, Inc. $545,204,142 3.5%
NVIDIA Corp. $449,712,460 2.9%
Alphabet, Inc. Class C $427,070,655 2.7%
Top Ten Holdings Total: $7,257,029,377 45.9%

See the entire prospectus here https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/composition/316389105

ITs a phenomenal list of potential short opportunities when the time is right.


Q: Hi Bill
I am sure you have noticed, that in spite of all the bashing of the precious metals yesterday afternoon and today.... the GLD added another 6 tonnes (852 vs 846) of gold to their ETF.

As a long time subscriber, I thank you for all that you do

Q: Hi Bill,

What are your top 3-5 stocks that currently look the most precarious?
AAPL, TSLA, etc.?
Any mid/small caps?


Q: Hello Bill; I know you hold your positions in NGD, PVG, and KL for different reasons, which of the three ( if any ) would you consider LEAST speculative ?