Often wrong, never in doubt. – Bill Fleckenstein

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Fleck's Thoughts

Ask Fleck

Q: "The Philadelphia Fed reports:
Price increases were more widespread this month for the firms’ inputs and own goods. The prices paid diffusion index increased 8 points to 76.8, its highest reading since March 1980. Nearly 77 percent of the firms reported increases in input prices, while none reported decreases. The current prices received index increased 7 points to 41.0, its highest reading since May 1981.”
- WSJ 5-20-21

Survey responses were collected from May 10 to May 17.

Q: The other day you mentioned shorting small treasuries (tyn I believe), are you still short them?

Q: The scars of the 2013 taper tantrum were all over the sentence in the Fed minutes. The upper case is mine. "A number of participants suggested that IF the economy continued to make rapid progress toward the Committee's goals, it MIGHT be appropriate AT SOME POINT in upcoming meetings to BEGIN DISCUSSINS a plan for adjusting the pace of asset purchases." Give a gold metal to the wordsmith of that. As the economic studies of the benefits of QE don't point to any real impact on anything other than asset prices (most of the money ends back at the Fed as reserves and there is no link to bank lending growth) and debt monetization, we are seeing AGAIN evidence that markets still have the Fed wrapped around its fingers. While there is no question this goes back to Greenspan, the 2013 Fed experience was the moment that Bernanke and Powell (a Governor at the time) realized "when you find your servant is your master." The Police - Wrapped Around Your Finger

Q: What`, if any, is your opinion on Newfound Gold? It has performed well over the past 6 months, but appears to be closely held by a few big players, so maybe that could change quickly.

Q: Given that your attitude on crypto matches mine, I just wanted to make sure you and the Fleck Brigades have all seen this. It's absolute genius:


Q: Not to beat a dead horse, but one must be very careful comparing a current price of a security with a historic price, and the longer the period of time, the more details one needs to know. With any ETF like GDX, the components and the weightings are all vastly different than 10 years ago. There was no KL or EQX back then to use one example. NEM now includes GG under one roof for another example. The balance sheets and share counts of the constituents have all changed as well. So for better or worse, looking at price alone tells you very little. This also applies to an individual stock, in some cases even more so e.g. how has the share count changed, or the balance sheet/debt (influencing total enterprise value), management changes, business changes or divestitures, acquisitions, etc. All of those facts feed into the price, not the other way around. The more time that goes by, the more changes have likely occurred.

Q: Do you believe that China is slowly pushing its people to invest in gold (vs crypto etc)? If so, do you think this has significant implications for the overall gold thesis / bull market?