Often wrong, never in doubt. – Bill Fleckenstein

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Fleck's Thoughts

Ask Fleck

Q: ...Professor Robert Shiller has made some sound teaks to the standard S+P PE measure { he's a pretty sharp guy) and by his measure the current PE is almost twice the historical mean...

Q: Is it me or is the Wed/Thu move in miners underwhelming given the move in gold (and the partying equity markets generally)? Bad sign for sustainability of the up move / change in sentiment for gold?

Q: Did you hear what caused the death of the worker at the Young-Davidson mine? If there is a investigation how long would the mine be shut down for?

Q: My deceased dad would have asked me: Did Silver and Golds reversal today happen on heavy volume indicating a lot of buyers and people covering shorts.
For us Newbies, can you tell us the best way to determine if todays reversal happened on "heavy volume" or whatever the appropriate word would be in the precious metals market.
and thanks for all that you do for us Newbies who really value your interpretations of the market.

Q: Wesdome sure does have a way of shooting itself in the foot. It seems like every time they're about to get off the schneid they announce something that disappoints investors. Yesterday they announced an increase in their credit line to $150 million, leading one to believe they are in a good spot for future growth. 24 hours later they announce a $100 million "at the market" equity program, which creates the possibility for an unknown amount of dilution.

Were you disappointed with today's announcement and their ham-fisted communications?

Q: Hi Bill,

How can we best understand the difference in price between physical silver and the SLV ETF? It's more than a two point difference. I don't remember it being that high in the past. What I am lacking in understanding of the instrument.

Thank you

Q: Bill, Silver seems to have somewhat decoupled from gold recently. At a glance today, it was up 2% while gold was down. You’ve done a great job over time highlighting the factors that drive gold. How is silver different in how it behaves? Are there other considerations (ie increased speculation or industrial applications) that cause silver to diverge ant times and exhibit stronger price swings?


Q: One factor that I haven't seen discussed much not only here, but the news in general. is how much CARES Act money is still out there whether it's state's with massive surpluses or small-mid size companies that got their balance sheets shored up by PPP, ERTC or low interest EIDL loans. I want your opinion as to whether these overlooked factors might mitigate a recession or be another source of inflationary pressure? Thank you in advance for your response.

Q: Regarding the Wesdome announcement this morning about their equity program to issue and sell shares at market prices: It says the shares will come "from treasury". Does that mean these are already existing shares, and so their sale will not dilute the value of the total of all outstanding company shares? Or is their sale new shares that will still dilute shareholder value which, it seems to me, is a negative development. I would appreciate your explanation, as well as your opinion of their action. Thank you.

Q: We’ve now had 3 decent sell-offs followed by 3 rallies of over 12% in the S&P since the January peak. In all three rallies, stocks, bonds, and gold have shot back up together. After the first two rallies, all three also broke down sharply together. 1) Am I wrong to think that if stocks break down in price after this rally and gold finally does not follow stocks back down that this would represent a stronger point of entry to build back a full position in silver, gold, and the miners? 2) Or do you think that the breakout to the upside for the silver/gold ratio that MSA follows has already told us that something has changed in terms of gold? 3) Or are you watching something else that is important to you as a signal that gold and the miners are no longer going to be jerked around by the direction of the S&P? These 3 questions are really a way of asking what are you looking for to give you the confidence that it’s time to build an even stronger position in the miners.

Q: Bill, what do you make of the WDOFF ATM equity sale program just announced? Caught me by surprise. Could increase shares outstanding by up to 10%. Does it increase uncertainty and push out the timeframe for reward, or does it reflect an increased potential for growth?

Q: Bill: I follow Tamay Ozgokmen on Twitter. He has a very simple thesis that with higher Euro inflation, Euro rates will continue to rise while $USD rates will level off and fall --- especially when a brutal recession/depression strikes. He is long gold and bonds --- bonds because he thinks the contraction will kill inflation. He joked late last week about "Euro lait frappe." He and Brent Johnson (Santiago) were arguing this point (milkshake theory) last week as well. MSA is certainly onside about the now-weakening dollar.

I'm not asking you to parse Ozgokmen's analysis, but do you have strong disagreement (or agreement) with any of the particulars?

Q: Dear Bill
Sorry no question but just wanted to add to yesterday's comments on inventories. I looked at a series of retailers with a view to bottom picking and now is not the the time. All have huge builds in inventory which will need discounting to clear at the inflated costs.

The wonder of GAAP is that most companies are using FIFO (First In First Out). In inflationary times you get a big win at first as the old inventory gets sold at the inflated price. However in step 2 demand fails and you sell inflated cost inventory at lower prices.

Margins hide the rise in other operating fixed costs and then the other side kicks you in the arse.


Q: ".....I think this statement is spot on. Its what I always say, "progress has been mixed". Technology has certaintly vastly improved making our lives easier and more convienent...internet, phones, car reliability, medical treatments, and a ton more. But I think the social fabric of our nation has declined markedly. I personally also think music, culture, movies, art, restaurants, hotels, customer service, general friendliness, social skills of people, have all gone way down hill the last 30+ years. Country far more divided politically too."

I read Revolt of the Public some time back. Highly recommended and also explains much of the current Government/Media integration -- and why they're so flipped out over Twitter/Musk.

Q: Hi Bill --

If you believe (as I do) that there will be a significant drop in the broader equities markets after earnings estimates get revised early in the new year, would it make sense to sell positions in miners like WDOFF prior to that (with the idea that WDOFF and others would follow the broader markets down to new lows, after which you could buy them back at a lower price)?

Or would it make sense more sense to hold onto miners through a correction given their potential to do better during such a downturn in the broader markets?

Thanks much!

Q: Bill,

Would you not agree this has been the best 3 day move in Ag in years. What do you attribute it to?


Q: re Wesdome: do you have any idea what they are raising the money for:

1. Expanded bank line of credit
2. Registering a #100m Equity raise.

Thank you

Q: Bill,

Are you currently long anything in the commodities world other than gold and silver miners? Clearly it looks as if my idea that a weakening dollar would be a tailwind for commodities had been inaccurate this far, and only gold and silver have really shown much life.


Q: Hi Fleck: Does your silver trader friend have a short term view/trading position on silver? Thank you.