Often wrong, never in doubt. – Bill Fleckenstein

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Fleck's Thoughts

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Q: Time to go long Nov QQQ puts?

Q: Hi Fleck,

Thanks for the opportunity. I am still trying to better understand whether there is a possibility that the recent repo actions of the Fed can morph into being QE. I know you have been examining and writing on the issue. I believe I heard some market analysts think if there is duration and size to the repo operations then it is essentially QE. There is also a Zero Hedge article that you likely read, “The Fed will re-start QE in November: Here is how they Will Do It.” So my question is how much credence do you give to the position concerning repo possibly becoming QE? And are we closer to QE than we otherwise might think, meaning from a collapse in the market? Thank-you. All the best.

Q: Hello Bill,

I wrote to you a few days ago regarding Maverix Metals announcement that it has filed a final short form base shelf prospectus with the securities regulatory authorities. Their release said, "The Final Prospectus will, subject to the filing of a shelf prospectus supplement, allow for the potential offering of up to an aggregate of US$300,000,000 of Maverix’s common shares..." Do you think this means they will be raising capital via a share sale soon? Thanks

Q: Fleck, so it appears the Fed will allow its balance sheet to grow "organically" starting in Oct. Lots of information on the web that this is not a big deal, etc. I don't know, it kind of feels like what would be one of the first steps on the way back to QE and zero rates. What do you think?

Q: Q: Was watching a 1984 Jeopardy rerun on Netflix (obviously killing time). One of the questions was, largest US mail order company. The answer was, What is Sears.

Amazon was founded ten years later.

The uncertainty and change in this business keeps us humble.

"Doubt is uncomfortable, certainty is ridiculous." - Voltaire

Fleck: Voltaire was a smart guy. :)

Voltaire is also a dead guy... certainly :-). What should keep us humble (and generous) is that in another 35 years, most of us here will be keeping Voltaire company. What significance will our P/L numbers have then if our lives and money haven't made this world a better place for others before then?

Q: Unfortunately I am an amateur at trading. I have accounts with Fidelity and today WDOFF was shown to be trading at 5.90 up 31%. I thought I would take some profits and entered an order to sell 1500 shares at 5.90 (market order). The order went through at 4.52. My issue with Fidelity is that they provided data to me to review prior to submitting the order that lead me to believe I would receive very close to 5.90 a share. I am writing to you to confirm that WDOFF did hit 5.90 this morning. You never stop learning!

Q: Hi Bill,

Thanks to your reader who provided the links to the video on gold exploration. Will make sure to check them out.

I also take your point. I was just curious about the subject and I leave it to experienced geologist to interpret them.

On another topic, here is a recent interview of Mark Spitznagel echoing many of your thoughts : 'Negative Rates Is Insanity,' Says Universa's Spitznagel

Q: Hi Bill,
No question; just a big thank you for recommending Dave Chappelle's Netflix special "Sticks and Stones." I don't usually watch comedy shows on Netflix but since you recommended it...Well it is great and different. So again, a huge thank you.
And PS, thanks also for helping me to stick with the PMs and not chicken out. Patience is indeed a virtue.

Q: Hi Fleck: Pretium made a presentation at the 2019 Denver Gold Forum this week, in which they reaffirmed full year guidance. Wouldn't they have to know by mid-September, if 3rd quarter performance was meeting expectations? Or am I reading too much into this? Thank you.

Q: Just some basic info for some readers about foreign stocks trading on the "pink sheets' (or whatever they are called these days - the five letter symbols ending in F). It doesn't matter if there is a bid or ask, or how many shares have traded. Look at the underlying stock and adjust for the currency and then enter your limit at a penny above that number (if you are a buyer; a penny below if you are a seller). You will get filled - there are no liquidity issues; this is just a way to buy a foreign security in USDs instead of local currencies. Just never ever enter a market order unless you know the trader or trading systems well from experience and enter it "not-held" - that is the only time when "liquidity" of those shares may matter.

For example, on BONXF, look up BTR in Canada. The ask is 2.52. CAD spot is 1.326. 2.52 divided by 1.326 is 1.90. Enter your buy order at 1.91 limit and you should get filled. I have bought thousands of shares of an issue that had traded only a few thousand shares or even none at all, repeatedly, under the US symbol - the underlying had traded many multiples of that, which is what matters. The trader will buy the shares in Canada, do the FX, and deliver you the US symbol. The volume of the pink sheets stock doesn't have any impact on liquidity, only the volume on the local exchange. Of course, different firms may do it differently and some may want more than a penny of room, but that has been my experience with a few different firms over the years...

Q: Fleck, I noticed that GDX is consistently on CNBC's top volume chart. Sometimes its up big, sometimes down big, etc, - but it seems to have a consistent spot now. In your opinion, is this a good thing - does it show now more interest in gold/mining stocks - and given the uptrend, this is a good thing for your readers? Thanks.