Often wrong, never in doubt. – Bill Fleckenstein

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Fleck's Thoughts

Ask Fleck

Q: Hi Bill...............Re Equinox/Leagold merger. With shareholders having voted yes, is there still a chance that merger does not get completed?

Q: Hi Bill,

Checking if know anything about AbraPlata Resource Corp (ABRA) and Group Ten Metals (PGE)?


Q: Do you manage your retirement account differently from your regular account? For example, if your retirement account is tax deferred, than do you do more short term trading?

Q: Hi Bill,
You mentioned a "hunch". Mine has turned into a tingler. Any reason why one shouldn't take on as much sqqq as one is comfortable with? Seems like a good trade for the first leg down anyway.
Been reading you a long time, made a few bucks along the way. Thanks.

Q: Hi Fleck: One comment and one question: According to Canadian Insider, Sean Boyd bought 5,000 shares of AEM in the public market on February 21st at a price of 69.64/share Canadian. Now the question: Do you think that the halt in construction on Alamos Gold's Turkish mine project will significantly impact the company and stock? What if they are never allowed to complete the project? Thank you.

Q: Dear Bill,

Re: Q: Virus stats: According to worldometers.info/coronavirus, Indonesia remains unscathed -- not a single case. It strains credibility that this large overwhelmingly muslim nation of 275 million would escape while surrounded by afflicted neighbors. Big penny waiting to drop?

A friend of mine works for a large global airline, caught up with him a couple of weeks back now, he said their internal department which deals with such things believed that India (at that stage) had at least 5K infections. There are some huge hollow logs waiting to be kicked in these sorts of countries with massive numbers of very impoverished people, but also with a growing and substantial middle class.

Q: Fleck,
It appears Paulson's hedge fund bought a small stake in PVG -
"Pretium Resources (PVG): PVG is a very small 0.62% of the portfolio stake purchased this quarter at prices between $8.70 and $12.50 and the stock currently trades well below that range at $7.81."

What do you make of this? Of course, they might have sold it already - but still - does it make you more interested in moving money into PVG?

Q: I love the chaos and Fiat currency or have I have been able to manage at least a 25% annual gain on my IRA account playIng the miners auy Paas and stable company stocks dad get entry points every time the president opens his mouth and says something negative
recently i’ve been playing USAS
Are you familiar with them they’re predominately have been a silver company and they reinvented himself to look for gold
my question is is do you have a perspective on them?

Q: Bill, since you are planning to write on Monday about the lunacy of Brainards speech to increase inflation, I was wondering if you or your readers have thought about how INFLATIONARY the virus could be.

Consider how the past 2 decades CPI has been suppressed by importing cheap goods from Asia. Now, what happens if Chinese output is curtailed for 6 months or longer? It seems to me that Walmart/Target/Amazon/etc are going to have to find more expensive items to sell... There is no way that the Fed is ready for a reversal of that trend, so the question is if that is even a possibility... Do you think that the prospect of an inflationary recession is even being considered?

Q: As I've read the Ask Fleck the past few days, it seems folks are getting way to cute managing their positions in the metals. I may be wrong, b/c I am a newbie to this website (10 years) compared to some real long-timers, but it feels like this is finally the time where folks should simply hold their positions in the miners and let it play out.

Of course I'm not talking about oversized trading positions that need to be managed, but I think everyone knows what I mean. Feels like its finally happening.

Quick question, if things continue to deteriorate, do you think the Fed will increase it's "non-QE" amount per month or cut interest rates first?

Thanks for all you do......

Q: Fleck, what does your gut say about why the miner's aren't going up more. Do you think its because of other investment possibilities like Cryptos, or more that people still don't trust this gold price - so we need to see gold have a sustainable rally and stay up in price before more money moves int the miner space? Curious to know, in all honestly ,if a value investor was looking for a place to invest are miner's a good value at this point vs. other stock investments?

Q: Hey Fleck, On the way down, I remember it seemed not that rare that the miners would have awful days - sometimes 7 - 8 % down. Think we'll see up days like that in this new hopefully gold bull market?

Q: Hi Bill,
While it may seem too early to make this call, do u lean towards an inflationary or deflationary recession when it happens? One school of thought is that global monetary supply increase would be highly inflationary but it seems most industrial commodities and oil seems to be facing a glut would mean it wouldn't be.

Q: You and others have mentioned hot money or "momentum money" in stocks (e.g., AEM), specifically when one has a large drawdown. How does one ascertain how much of the investor base is like this? Seems like the higher the percentage of hot money in a stock, the more volatile it will be and that while that stock may take an escalator up, it can take an elevator down. Seems like knowing this piece of info would be a good risk management tool.

Q: Hi Bill,

I am sure everyone would love if there were option in WDOFF. How is it decided if company will have options traded on it?

Thank you

Q: Hi Bill - just wanted to comment on that reader's post that was bragging about his gains in AMD, Bitcoin etc - you said you don't give advice, just your opinion, but IMO you provide much more - you give us a relatively free education on history, the economy and markets in general, plus access to some great insights from Mr Skin and the like - all for a whopping $0.33/day.

I can tell you I've made plenty of money leveraging off of your free education of the past several years both by sitting on my hands when I would have otherwise lost money and making a boat load over the last year and a half - so thank you sir for all you do. And I hope that reader is nimble enough to head for the exit when this all comes crashing down as I'm certain it will - I witnessed quite a few "ballers" lose all of their "winnings" in a mere matter of days back in 2000 and also 2008,

Have a great weekend!

Q: Bill: I'm framing this as carefully as I can. Anyone who's paying attention knows that Covid-19 is an (early) pandemic, as it can be spread to dozens of persons by one asymptomatic carrier (as the South Koreans have just found out). Obviously it's going to impact our economy, and it's already a classic black swan event if you live in China or South Korea.

I'm assuming you don't want to tell us what to do about it, as that is not the service you provide. I ran a search about pandemics and investing, and there isn't much on the topic. In 2006, Fidelity published a paper on pandemics that was, basically, just equivocating newspeak and reassuring thoughts on "stocks for the long run."

My point today is that I'm more interested in what you're doing about coronavirus than what anybody else is doing about it, so any comments you can provide on the steps you're taking will, I think, be of interest to all your readers.

I think there's almost no question that the virus will push gold up and mining stocks down. So the question is whether "stocks for the long run" is a good idea, when it comes to the miners. As in all circumstances, it is very hard to win the timing game by being too cute. Surely, even if the miners take a steep plunge, I imagine they will be looking good when we come out of this, with gold presumably somewhere north of $2000, the excesses wrung out of the market, etc.

My first instinct is still to do nothing. If at any point you start to think otherwise, my behaviour will be influenced by your opinion, as it has for the past 17 years. (In 2002-03, I thought investing in gold miners was an out-of-nowhere idea. I had to read you for quite a long time before I could connect the dots. I have learned to pay a lot of attention to how you think about things.)

Q: Bill,

Are you index or tech(index or ind'l stocks) shorting today or waiting for bigger drop.

Thanks, and a fine day for Precious metal stalwarts.