Often wrong, never in doubt. – Bill Fleckenstein

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Fleck's Thoughts

Ask Fleck

Q: Hi Bill

I don't know how close you follow the other precious metals, but Palladium has recently risen sharply. What I've read suggests that mine supply is short. I think a lot of Palladium is found with Platinum, whose price has gone the other way. Since I trust little of what I read I was wondering if you know of anything special going on here?
I swapped some Silver for Palladium back in April 2011 because I thought that Silver had a good run and Palladium had stood still for so long. I now think the opposite is true, and was going to swap them again.


Q: Bill Do you have any knowledge of Sandstorm Gold? If so,,any opinion

Q: The past few days have seen the "market" resist any effort to resolve the "overbought", in accordance with "traditional" rules. Instead, a new up leg popped off the "overbought" and has shown a bit more strength than a "normal" bear market bounce. I never care about the "why" but instead respect the fact that "up" progressed when it "wasn't supposed to". If one is in severe need to suspect the "why", I think it might be a combination of Powell being hammered into "submission" at the same time Trump's hype machine has toyed, once again, about a "Chinese deal. Obviously, the "machines" react to such manipulation, which is becoming more and more evident over the past few weeks. With headline roulette governing the game, at the same time well publicized "seasonals" favor an upside play, the unfolding technical picture remains relatively favorable for the time being (barring an unexpected dose of negative fodder for the machines)

Q: Did you think that Sam Zell's reasoning for buying gold is valid?
"Supply is shrinking "
Thanks, Bill

Q: Hi Bill - Do you know anything about/have an opinion about gold/silver storage entities like "OwnX"? This is from their website. Do you think this is a safe way to invest in physical?

Our clients’ metal is safely stored at a world-class, non-bank depository. Holdings are fully allocated and 100% insured by an all-risk policy underwritten by the world’s leading specialty insurance provider.

Your holdings are completely yours; 100% ownership. This means that they are not on the balance sheet of OWNx, the depository or any other entity. Not a single ounce is used as collateral or hypothecated in any way.

Storing Your Gold and Silver

Q: I'm not sure I understand your point about using individual names instead of indexes to better protect against headline news, since the indexes are just a bunch of names. When Powell spoke Jan 4 the indexes, and all the name in them, went up about the same. What am I missing? A Fed ease pretty much affects everything!

Q: What is a better company to hold in your opinion Agnico or the newly combined NEM-GG?

Q: Hi Bill

It appears a lot of asset classes are not in tune with the stock market party.

Feels more and more like other historical Bear market rallies.

Be interesting to see what the retest looks like?

Q: Fleck,
Will declining mine supply be a good thing or bad thing for miners?

Q: Starting in about the last week it seems cash gold has been trading about 30-50 cents above the February gold futures. Is this true and if so do you consider it significant?

And do you think that the new Basel III standards that now count gold as risk-free capital (as opposed to the previous 50% haircut) could account for some of the recent increase in the price of gold in Euros? If I were a banker I would rather hold gold than pay the ECB negative rates.

Q: The robots got "triggered" to buy when the "overbought" SPX crossed 2600. Trend following is wonderful, until it isn't, of course. I assume the robots have also "learned" that the Fed has been clubbed into submission and abandoned any hope of "normalizing" the financial environment. Bernanke was right when he said "normalization" would never take place during his lifetime. Your reader was onto something with The Eagles' "Hotel California".

GS and UNH accounted for about 160 DJIA points today. Several gaps spread around. Rest of the so-called "market" rather muted but that doesn't matter. MOMO, calendar, chicken Fed, all that really matters...until it doesn't again.

Q: I asked a question about EQXFF the other day and you asked me to be more specific. What I wanted to know is: Do you think their January 8th report indicated to you that things are going well there, or at least as well as one could expect given its early stage of exploration, and, if so, was the data good enough to justify upping the size of your position at this point or do you still want to see more progress first? Thank you.