Often wrong, never in doubt. – Bill Fleckenstein

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Fleck's Thoughts

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Q: Hey Bill, one more question regarding NGD. Is there any reason to expect write downs in the value of their assets; or are we safe to assume those have passed?

If so, it seems like these prices are less than book value.

Q: Hey Bill, I'm looking at the balance sheet etc. for NewGold and the PEA for Blackwater. Do you think the market is too highly discounting the value of Blackwater?

Since the Blackwater PEA was from 2012 it seems likely that an updated one would result in lower CAPEX for that mine. Is Blackwater the hidden gem within NGD?

Q: The rally came in right on schedule, bouncing nicely off the RISING trend lines (most importantly, the 200-day MA, always "Programmed" into the robotic brains). No real surprises but I wanted to evaluate the "quality" of the rally once it got underway. So far, internal strength is impressive. However, it looks like the FAANG addiction is alive and well and the primary buying is coming in through ETF purchases, which levitates or depresses everything within the ETF's charter. As I have emphasize before, ETF activity grossly distorts traditional, "old" advance/decline statistics. Therefore, I tend to ignore that "Stone Age" squiggle that used to measure divergences. Now, we measure them a few different ways.

Meanwhile, the bonds have continued to be very weak, when they were "supposed" to enjoy a decent rally. This further confirms the bond bear thesis. and if the things keep going down, stocks will one day break hard. Right now, I think this rally will approach the old highs in the key indices, especially the "DOW", if internals start to weaken. For the time being the greater fool, trend chasing bullish players have some cover.

Q: A couple of days ago you wrote in response to a question "The action and events of last week were a big deal to me, and whatever we see this week will not undo that." I thought the same, but sitting here post-close on Thursday, with an incredible "no fear" rally continuing into its 5th day, do you still have the same view? I would have thought there would be much more actual and psychological damage from the volatility trade unwind, but it truly seems as the market's back to "business as usual". Amazingly.

Q: Hi Bill,
Did you notice that EGDFF has had quite a move? Do you have any idea why this is happening? Could this be a harbinger of a move in the miners?

Q: Bill,

Do you sense like I do that this rebound rally the past 5 sessions have an almost rip your face off bear market rally feel to it?

Thanks as always!

Q: Bill

I purchased a small miner via one of the online brokers. I had the intention of getting a Direct Registration but was told that the company did not have this option available. They only had stock certificates. When I inquired about how to get their certificate the broker told me the cost would be $500. First, who gets this exorbitant amount of money? Second, and most important is there some way to pay a smaller charge for a certificate?

Q: Fleck,
No question - -just WOW I can't believe it's been 10 years since your book was published. It all seemed/seems so clear and yet so little has fundamentally changed.

Q: "Fleck: No, once psychology changes they won't be able to control long rates. More printing to buy more will exacerbate the problem."

I understand your thinking and share it for now - but how can you exclude that they buy 50-100% of outstanding bonds down the line?
It would be be just one degree more of crazy-ness.
ECB, BOJ, BOE may join in - so the dollar may not be toast "toute suite".

Q: Bill:
AEM earnings yesterday caused a bit of a pullback like 4% as of this AM, after a close in the middle of its price range yesterday. But I noticed AEM has wide price swings as is its general nature. Are you satisfied with their earnings? Anything to be concerned about?
Thank you very much!

Q: Hi Fleck:

The Northern Miner had a good article about the proposed new Canadian resources law which, if enacted, would lengthen the permitting process for new mines..Have you had a chance to review the proposed legislation? Thank you.