Often wrong, never in doubt. – Bill Fleckenstein

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Fleck's Thoughts

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Q: Bill, in your book (pp. 121-26), you discuss Greenspan's look at the exogenous event of 9/11...

By then, of course, the markets had seriously corrected; some sanity had begun to prevail, but then Greenspan laid the blame on the "exogenous event," overlooking the correction already well advanced.

We had a moment or two of sanity in December 2018...quickly erased by easing and then we got the latest exogenous event when the virus came along. Now Powell has a handy scapegoat and the fragility of the markets before COVID has been swept under the rug with his multi-trillion-dollar broom.

Thing of it is, there's no rule in life that says only one Black Swan at a time and all the trillions tossed at COVID have made us only more fragile. I'm so happy that we now have the Powell Put in place; makes me feel warm all over. But he's looking like a carbon copy of your old pal Greenspan.

No adults anywhere. Not since Volcker. Jim Grant for Fed Chair...and soon, before we get a really big Swan.

Q: Hope this finds you well.

I’m thinking about the Mike Green view of the world and how passive flows fuel the momentum trade, which disproportionately benefits the largest constituents of the S&P.

If gold begins to capture the imagination of ‘the public’ and they chose to gain exposure through GDX and GDXJ, do you think we are likely to see the same phenomenon play out whereby the top 4 or 5 stocks in these ETFs do better purely as a function of passive flows?


Q: I know you understand my circumstances...survived 2 of the 3 bubbles of the last 2 decades but now will live out my life as a full time caretaker(and since the day centers have been closed since mid march 24/7 means 24/7). But to your reader who said stupid stuff as he cares for his mom with Alzheimer's in a small town in Kansas....let me share something one caretaker to another......

I have lost count of how many copies of this book I have given away,but please find "Making Rounds With Oscar".....it is a true story about a cat who lives on the 3rd floor of a place that cares for those with Dementia......but the Doctor who wrote it not only tells the tail of the cat who predicts death(and as I type this is still alive)but turns it into a manual of how to deal with taking care of a parent with dementia....please whoever wrote in to Bill,read the book....it will help you a little bit and that's all anyone can do for someone in your situation.......

Q: Hi Bill, with the gold options expiration date coming up this week and the decent move in the metal today, can you tell me if a chart like this plays into any trades you might be making this week? I just always seem to be on the wrong side of these moves. would be nice to have an idea what is coming this week. thanks.


Q: Head of PVG operations leaving. How do you read this? Negative, slight negative, slight positive, positive? Do you think there is much risk that they have selectively mined as stated in the old Viceroy report?

Q: The post yesterday about upheaval and PPP corruption reminded me of a question about potential scenarios for what the economy (and politics) look like going forward.

You've mentioned the 1970's as a possible template. Seems reasonable in many ways although the shock is different.

What about the 1930s ?

Of course you'd still have to pick which country in the 1930s.
US style expansion of a social safety net to ward off revolution, vs German style expansion via dictatorship/military spending/conquest.
Kinda feels like it could go either way at this point.

Q: Bill,

I saw this on zerohedge this morning about China buying multiple gold miners.

Chinese Gold Miners Continue To Gobble Up Gold Companies

For the sake of discussion, let's say that they will be able to develop a currency backed by hard assets at some point. It may be 3, 5, or even 10 years, but let's presume they'll get there.

In that situation, what would you generally expect to happen in:

* Currencies
* Bonds
* Commodities ex precious metals
* General Retail
* Manufacturing

I'm sure that this development would be bullish for miners.

Q: Great term - left behind. Nobody buys gold and gold shares, like a fund labeled an institution’s gold allocation, underweight, in cash and left behind. In April and early in May 2009 conventional wisdom from many smart gold guys was for better second half seasonality in gold and shares. GDX was up 34% in May as those left behind scrambled to buy exposure.

Q: Hi Bill,

I came across this idea that the World Economic Forum is pushing for a great reset.

The Great Reset

Sound like the globalists want to use the current situation to push for a global reset. If this was some tin foil hat wearing wacko on youtube that would be one thing, but this is the WEF talking about their plans. Do you think this is something to pay attention to, or wishful thinking from the WEF?

Q: The article claims that Macs are only 5% of INTC's revenue. Do you think the impact will actually be much worse?

(Bloomberg) -- Apple Inc. said it plans to sell Mac computers using processors designed in-house, signaling an end to its 15-year alliance with Intel Corp.

Apple-Made Computer Chips Coming to Mac, in Split From Intel

Q: My dream investment vehicle is an All Cap Gold/Silver miners fund where a manager like yourself could buy the best ideas regardless of size. I know your expertise is shooting them in the back but would you consider the above?

Q: Good morning Bill,
I noticed that Greg Gibson has just joined KL. KL's website says Gibson latest position was CEO at Bonterra. Bonterra's website still lists him as President & CEO. Does the fact that Bonterra has not made an announcement about it's CEO call into question it's management and board decision making. Additionally, they generally provide very limited news flow. Does this concern you as an investor?

Q: ...a couples of decades ago I spent $25 grand getting a Wharton MBA and in 1 quant class we spent a week determining how to arbitrage backwardation and contango...so I could have learned easier ways to make more money playing "Twister" or "Candyland"? Damn...

Q: ...NASDAQ 10,000 and some bonehead on the net picking scrabble letters for stock tickers...forget investment theory, economics, monetary and fiscal analysis we know all we really need to know...