Fleckenstein
Capital.com

Often wrong, never in doubt. – Bill Fleckenstein

Daily Content
Fleck's Thoughts
Appearances

Ask Fleck


Q: Hi Bill,

Any particular reason Paas is under pressure today
despite metals and most miners are green today ?

Thank you

Q: Thank you for the effort you put into writing your daily rap. My question pertains to silver. How does the future increase in electric vehicles impact the silver supply vs future demand?

Q: I am a CPA who will be retiring soon. I was thinking of studying to become a CFA. Do you think there is any value in learning what CFA's know?

Q: Bill,

Always appreciate your views and comments. What wine do you recommend with BBQ? :-)

Q: Fleck: Hard to believe it's been almost 25 years.

And I thought I was the only one getting old.

The best, as always,

PS. Must be close to a bottom. The whining is increasing. :)

Q: I have to chime in on today's Ask entries. I found you on SI, and between you and Richard Russell, I bought bullion @ $250 and accumulated until I was "fully loaded" @ $1000. So I don't worry much about wild swings, thank goodness.

And, yes, I pray it doesn't hit $20,000.

So (thank.you)exp10

Q: Hello Bill,

Today's tutorial on gold stopped short of discussing the impact of "paper" gold on gold price and gold vehicle preference - which is somewhat fungible and ubiquitous like fiat money. Care to add a chapter to your tutorial?

Q: Bill,

What are your impressions of the Wesdome numbers that came out yesterday? The market doesn't appear to like them, although it's difficult to discern in the current tape for gold miners. Mark IKN put out an email suggesting that he is looking for a re-entry point. Is this getting to a spot where you would consider adding? Thanks!

Q: With all of the frustration regarding the mining sector's performance, I'm looking for more fear in the sector in order to put in a bottom. Just like tops (August 2020) tend to bring a lot of optimism, excitement, and euphoria, bottoms tend to see disgust, regret, and fear. I am not seeing the fear of loss and the growing of regret in the miners yet. What am I missing?
Could we see a fear trade lower before mining earnings season in February?

Q: Hi Bill, I've written here a few times reflecting on my process to getting to something that resembles investment and allocation rather than a trading and reacting.

I subscribe to the "permanent portfolio" from Harry Browne, which is basically equal weight equity, bonds, cash, and gold. Some take it a step further and add real estate, or some such thing.

I have increased my gold, reduced my bonds and hold those of a shorter duration, reduced equities and tilted them in favor of natural resources, energy, and general inflation aware managers (like Horizon Kinetics), increased positively yielding real estate, and cash for safety and optionality during crashes.

I personally hold between 5-10% in bitcoin, and that's what works for me. It helps me hold onto it when it goes 10x, and when it goes -90%.

Having a process helps one stay sober with the fact that simply and truly, "we don't know what when or how"

Q: Dear Bill,

I haven’t written in to Ask Fleck in quite a while for two reasons. The first reason is somewhat axiomatic: the whole world has gone nuts. Politically and economically. There are too many questions and no easy answers. The second reason is now that I am, at best, a private investor and not a SRFM, I have less communication with old colleagues. Nevertheless, I have reason to write today.
First, an observation on your Daily Rap ‘essay’, “Gold Isn’t Money: It’s Better Than That.” When I saw the heading, my first reaction was the Talking Heads “I got a girlfriend that's better than that.” (What can I say?) Then, I read the essay and recalled a quote from Samuel Johnson, “The greatest part of a writer’s time is spent in reading, in order to write; a man will turn over half a library to make one book.” I suspect you have read over half a library on the history of gold and, in less than 600 words, you effectively encapsulated the investment case for it. Nicely done.
The second reason pertains to my recent conversations with some old colleagues. A few are retired, some still managing enormous amounts of money. The general consensus was that, at some point (no guesses on ‘when,’ but the feeling was sooner rather than later), the correction in the stock market is going to be worse than any living investor has ever witnessed. Words bantered about included epic, ruination, devastation, catastrophic, and Biblical. (See, it is not an oxymoron for a big-league fund manager to be religious). The feeling was that the Federal Reserve has so over-played the money printing game that there isn’t a plausible scenario where the current trajectory doesn’t end in disaster. This coming from the same colleagues who, in recent years, didn’t worry about selling stocks because of the Fed’s constant backstopping. My question is, do you believe that those adjectives (i.e., epic, catastrophic, etc.) are hyperbolic, about right, or perhaps modest?

Q: Wondering if you had an opinion on it's relevance as to where we are today in the grand scheme of things. Some of the ideas set forth when the book was written (I believe in 1997) about what the 'crisis' would be in the fourth turning are amazing to me. New disease / CDC, financial crisis, etc. This fourth turning was to have started around 2005 and complete around 2025. I'm still digesting it all, but the inevitable outcome of all of the money printing since the GFC ties in very well with the parts of the turning that I understand so far.

Q: 1/14 daily rap a walk off home run, 3 pointer from half court and a hail mary TD. I suffer from a love of mining and gold and silver. I think of those guys 1 mile down digging for gold, the poor in the Andes foothills trying to survive on the rare nugget and yes even the corporations struggling with everything to find gold. What a story for 5000 years!
But you have captured the modern world of gold and silver. Congratulations and please find a way to tell your story to everyone.

Q: Hi Fleck,
Jason Goepfert at Sentiment Trader just published a piece showing how historic, unsustainable levels of speculation have been occurring specifically through call option volume and now penny stocks.

A tiny market with huge volume


Do you consider this as an indicator that we are very close to the end of the current stock market bubble? Thanks for your response.

Q: Hi Fleck - I was wondering why you're only in two silver stocks, PAAS and SILV as opposed to the much longer list for gold? Since PAAS derives a lot of its revenue from gold, it seems like there would be room for miners that have a higher % from silver. I've heard occasionally that silver miners are not good companies just in general, is this why you're not interested in the others?

Q: Bill,

While thinking about the recent reaction to the "riots" and "sedition" at the Capitol, I caught this today: Large bitcoin payment made to far-right individuals before U.S. Capitol attack: report

If the first amendment is being toyed with, who thinks Bitcoin won't be?

Q: Bill:

The metals may continue to chop around to lower, but if you want to see what appears to be the tiny bubbling of inflation look and how the grains and some of the softs are trading. Soybeans have been on quite a rip of late.

I wonder what the geniuses in the imperial city have as a solution in the event of an inflationary spike and the attendant increase in food prices. The clown show “attempted coup” might be looked up wistfully in the coming months and years. I am thinking of starting an online torches and pitchfork boutique.

You do an incredible job in providing great insights into the equity and metals arena (financial overview as well) and provide an important educational tool for both the experienced investor as well the neophyte. For the pittance that you charge and the fact that it all goes to charity shows a man who walks the walk.

Q: Can Not thank you enough for putting us on PAAS. Bought a slug of Jan. 17's calls,exp. 1/15 back in 2019.. Good for a 1200 percent gain. Sold half of them Jan.4th took that cash and exercised the other half and still had some change left over. Been at this over 40 years, best short term trade I have ever made. I will be sure to send some Roanoke Park Counseling way this Christmas. Thanks again.


Thanks a Billion

Q: Hi Bill
I believe a reader recently ask about Bitcoin and IRS/FBAR reporting. This was posted by FinCen on December 30, 2020

Report of Foreign Bank and Financial Accounts (FBAR)
Filing Requirement for Virtual Currency

Q: Hi Bill. Long time consumer of your work, recent subscriber. Just a comment. Its actually good to see the worry about gold and PM stocks from your readers. I like to see nervousness and doubt...and when that spills over to Wall Street all the better. I also think the debate about BTC vs gold is getting tired. A rising BTC has nothing to do (IMO) with what gold and silver are going to do. People need to understand that BTC is a very small market as is gold and silver in relation to stocks and bonds, so there is plenty of room for both to do very well as the general market looks for places to invest as the CBs print and governments borrow themselves into oblivion. Remember the old saying, gold will always do what its supposed to do, just not when you think its will.

Cheers

Q: Hi Bill,

Out of curiosity, did your friend sell his Bitcoin or decide that his parabola count was off (or something else)?

Thanks

Q: Dear Bill, any insights as to why WDOFF has been doing extra poorly?