Often wrong, never in doubt. – Bill Fleckenstein

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Fleck's Thoughts

Ask Fleck

Q: Hyper volumes of debt Will require hyper volumes of inflation to reconcile that account
Question is do you agree with that analogy?

Q: In retrospect to the past value of gold I felt that gold would be in $4500 to $5000/oz range today
If currencies continue too have the same dynamic relationship they now have,
will gold continue in the price range that it is in now?

Q: Bill,

I've been observing over the past few trading days silver is weak overnight and opens negative, then slowly claws back to positive.  Guessing there isn't a lot to read into this as it is a short sample of time, but do you have an opinion on what may be going on in the short term?

Q: Hi Bill,

A lot of subscribers seem interested in the DSI. Those who are interested in sentiment as well as tying it in with Demark indicators and some other proprietary stuff for trading can look up Hedge Fund Telemetry run by Tommy Thornton. He offers a free trial service and his annual service is cheaper than the DSI subscription rates mentioned in Ask Fleck. Of course this is more than plain DSI.

Q: Morning

Looking on the Bloomberg share register for KL US, I noticed that Blackrock and Van Eck have only recently (30 September 2020) appeared on the register.  Combined they hold c.17% of the issue.  Could this be a potential overhang?  Why would they only appear now? 

Thank you

Q: Hi Bill,

Have you or would you ever invest in Platinum for a precious metal?  It is cheap compared to gold right now but is Platinum dead or cheap and ready to fly?

Q: I'm just looking for reassurance that this statement from HedgeEye is completely wrong about gold:

As Janet Yellen was speaking yesterday, the dollar was careening to new cycle lows. New cycle lows beget lower lows.

That is going to perpetuate higher levels of inflation, higher levels of interest rates, higher levels of real yields off the real yield low, while lowering Gold price, Gold miners, and Utilities.

McCullough: Fade Your Feelings... Short Gold (At The Top End Of The Risk Range)

Q: Hi Fleck,

Paul Tudor Jones was recently quoted as saying that he believes the economy will see an "absolute supersonic boom" next year.  I am fully aware that disagreeing with PTJ is not a moneymaking strategy over time, but I don't see it that way. 

I believe the vaccine rollout will have many more bumps in the road, and that there will be many folks reluctant to take the vaccine.  There will be all kinds of legal issues regarding folks returning to work in offices.  We don't know how long the vaccine immunity lasts, and if people will be diligent about keeping up with their vaccinations.  And we don't know if repeated vaccinations will be a problem. 

I think a good number of people will continue to be cautious.  Am I being too pessimistic?

Q: Bill:
I should have searched the Ask Fleck before I asked about SA's bought deal. You have a thorough assessment of problems with bought deals in the 12/5/2019 Daily Rap. So I guess I would just follow up with this question:
Q: A bought deal involving, say, 5% of float is probably not as potentially damaging as one involving, say, 50% of float, right? Yikes, how can one judge?

Q: Bill, I enjoyed and learned from your interview with Fred Hickey.
What I can't seem to wrap my head around Is how an entity drives the price of am asset (gold) Down. I believe I get why they can push a price higher with calls and the subsequent hedging by the dealers,but how do they push it down.
If this is to complicated  a question to answer briefly could you possibly point me toward some reading that might bring me up to speed

Q: Fleck,

It will be really interesting to see if the miners finally capture attention when they report Q4 since that will be back to back quarters of good execution operationally and financially.  Beside seasonal factors affecting Q4, COVID hasn't impacted the miners much this quarter with shutdowns,  The gold price although will have a lower average price for the quarter versus last quarter should still produce good profits at the average capture price.  Oil has increased slightly this quarter but it's marginal.  Most of the good miners should hit or exceed guidance for the year based on information to date for this quarter.  T

I'm trying to remove all emotion and view this sector as rationally as possible.  There's a lot of favorable factors in play right now to move the miners.  It's just a matter of time before big money finally catches on and sees this sector executing on all cylinders and decides to play.  Having back to back solid quarters will help although the gold price really drives the movement.  I could see the miners executing quarter to quarter throughout 2021 assuming the gold price holds.  Nobody knows what will trigger this sector to run like the crazy tech stocks have seen historically but with each quarter of good profits/cashflow and the gold price staying above 1,800 an ounce something will eventually trigger an unbelievable run.  One can probably assume the gold price will pop hard when a stimulus plan is confirmed which we all know will happen which could move the miners to a new level but who knows.  It feels like 2021 is the year the miners could finally break hard.  No question here.  Just reviewing the miners and still in awe that they aren't feeling much love when they're positioned so well from a business operations standpoint and most importantly, financial standpoint.

Q: With platinum challenging multi-year highs and outperforming gold and silver recently do you have any interest in shifting investments into the metal or associated miners?