Often wrong, never in doubt. – Bill Fleckenstein

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Fleck's Thoughts

Ask Fleck

Q: Bill, do you have any inclination to take a shot at any of the FANG names, via puts, going into earnings? Guest on CNBC for the most part don't seem to believe these stocks can ever go down, but the market caps are getting somewhat extreme.

Q: Bill, as I know tech is a main focus of you and your readers, in today's NY manufacturing index for July, the 'technology spending' plans component fell 8 pts m/o/m to the lowest level since August 2017. Overall capital spending plans were down by 10 pts to also an 11 month low. I'm guessing that tariff worries are beginning to freeze corporate decision making.

Q: "Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase & Co., declared in early June that we were entering a golden age of banking. "

I missed this statement by Dimon a month ago. But, from my reading of financial & economic history, these types of states are usually issued at the top of stock and/or economic cycles....

Even Jamie Dimon Can’t Bend the Yield Curve

Q: "Fleck: What really matters more than anything else is when does psychology towards inflation become a problem instead of something we should (supposedly) cheer for (as the crazies at the CBs do). Once that starts to happen, all markets will be impacted in a big way, though it will most likely take some time."


I assume many of your subscribers circumstances are similar to mine...fully invested in bullion and miners, equal $$$ in cash. I am approaching 73, my wife is 58...we just sold a modest home and are renting, awaiting a fissure in the financial and housing markets, allowing us to return to coastal western Florida and retire. (Jan will exit Cardiology and seek library work, I'll chase dolphins from the bay).

Under your tutelege, I've learned to manage risk, trade around miners and keep our gains from gold's $600 rise to $1300+. Not without bonehead ventures into VIX and assorted idiocies, "burn and learn" lessons, rites of passage.

The only asset missing is time. We are in excellent health, no children and debtless. Your quote above about market impacts, inflation realization and psychology likely taking some time is open-ended enough to allow me consideration of selling our precious metals now or back, hopefully soon, to the $1300-1350 range. An acceptance of defeat, not out of lacking conviction, simply lacking time. Our selfish needs require a move from MA to FL by November of 2019.

Do you think it reasonable to hold on for 16 months. I intend to but seek validation, as you sound less sanguine of timelines than earlier this year.

Thank you, as always.