Often wrong, never in doubt. – Bill Fleckenstein

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Fleck's Thoughts

Ask Fleck

Q: Interesting that DB with $50 Tr in gross notional derivatives appears to have caused no ripples. Has LODM commented on DB? Do you expect DB related problems to surface this summer, later, or never?

Q: Do you believe there is any significance in the increase in long term interest rates?

Q: Wesdome reports stellar production and increases guidance and it's flat on the day. Had that been TLSA it would have been halted limit up.......I guess it gives us a chance to buy more at a bargain price.

What a market.

Q: Fleck,

With recent release of Q2 for New Gold, it appears new leadership is executing on the turnaround. If the next 2 quarters are in line and gold prices can stabilize at $1,500 per ounce, this company could be an interesting turnaround story. There’s still a lot of work to be done and gold prices need to get higher for this company to get on a sustainable path. Do you agree?

Q: Hello Bill & my condolences on the loss of your friend ;With the markets making new highs, do you see ANY signs of exhaustion yet. Also, do you see the chances of a market dislocation increasing. Thanks.

Q: "Dow" ramps 200+ points, ...whoopla, whoopee, ad nauseam, etc. However, "internal squiggles" really stunk so it is starting to look like "correction time". What better time than globally hyped "new all time high" (DJIA, etc._) while internals are declining and --- surprise, surprise, 10 yr. UST ramps from 1.95% to 2.15% in a matter of days, etc., to
spring the trap door on slow learners learning how to buy something. No crash, just a little wake up call to remind the newbies that stocks can actually go down, ...in spite of CNBS cheerleading.

Q: Hey Bill,

There was a lot of hype about Gold breaking out when it broke through the 1400 barrier. Now that it has happened it seems to be in a trading range. Also gold equites are doing ok but there seems to be no excitement in the price action. FYI I have been trading gold and gold equities for more than 14 years.
Do you think the hype was misfound? Or am I just being impatient?


Q: In looking at short ideas going into the later part of the year do you see MU and LRCX as equally good ideas, or does MU's recent earnings beat make you see either target differently. I realize that you're staying away for now, but of the two, I'm curious how MU's earnings release makes you think of LRCX's upcoming earnings given how closely their future prospects are tied.


Q: Amazon IPO 1997. I have been investing since 1998 and if I had invested $1,000 then it would be worth over $1 million. No buying and selling, reading, investment advice, trading fees, etc. So much wasted time on hot air, overvalued commentary, quarterly earnings, time & concern, etc. Just buy and hold. What prompted this? Your comment about "sitting tight".

Q: Seeing real weakness in U.S. industrial distributors, MSM yesterday and FAST today. Conf call - analyst question: "So, first off, can you provide a little bit more context around organic slowdown daily sales? Was it broad-based or did certain end markets drive the bulk of the weakness?"
CEO answer: "so what I would say is two comments. One is we saw some real pockets of weakness. A few that I would call out, automotive – it's probably not going to be a surprise to you, automotive, oil and gas and then the Midwest was hit pretty hard with agriculture, certainly. Pockets of strength, aerospace continues to remain strong. That said what I would say, outside of the pockets of weakness, we did through most of our customer base see a change through the quarter. And I would characterize the change as more uncertainty and shorter backlogs, along with some softening in export demand and concerns about more softening in export demand. So that's how I characterize it."

FAST CFO: From a macro standpoint, it's clear that activity slowed. The Purchasing Managers Index averaged 52.2 in the first quarter, which is still suggestive of a growing market, but well off the 56.9 level recorded as recently as the fourth quarter. Similarly, U.S. industrial production in April and May was up 1.3%, which is well below the 3.7% growth that we experienced just in the fourth quarter of 2018. There's no panic in the market and the month-to-month cadence through the quarter was mostly steady. But sentiment has become more cautious.

I am glad everyone expects a second half rebound.