Often wrong, never in doubt. – Bill Fleckenstein

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Fleck's Thoughts

Ask Fleck

Q: Well, Mr. Skin just brought home another good point: those Millennials or whatever they're called who now have twenty+ years of experience with an unbroken Fed put are now starting to enter their peak earnings/investing years. Why shouldn't they load up on the market with every extra dollar? It could take a whopper of a correction to change their mindset and we could have a heckuva rally or two before they give up.

Q: Gotta respect a man who's willing to publicly reconsider his reconsideration. HA!

Q: Hello Bill,

When I saw the big price drop in both Lowes and Home Depot today it felt like a big deal. What do you think? Is it important as it pertains to investors finally recognizing the weakness in consumer spending?


Q: Hi Bill,
Are you considering any type of positioning ahead of the debt ceiling deadline?
Have been watching bitcoin -- hasn't quite blown through the old high as of this but getting close. If it does, what does that say for the parabola count metric? I'm in the tech industry, I've been trying to grasp what could be driving this. I'm wondering if it isn't to some level driven by flows out of China. Certainly much easily to move bitcoin than gold....I'm wondering if that isn't the essence of it. In the end, I expect Bitcoin to be mentioned in the same breath as Magic: The Gathering cards and Beanie Babies -- but for now, the mania seems to have regained its magic.

Q: Hi Bill.
Pretty depressed after reading Mr. Skin's call for a possible parabolic move upwards.
A couple of questions for both of you: does a marginal new high qualify as a move that negates the June sell-off? Shouldn't you wait for a bit more of a confirmation in terms of prices moving higher and maintaining the higher highs for a while? I'm asking because in 2000 the SP did make a new marginal high in the summer before collapsing later in the year.
Second question: if the markets were to go parabolic this summer, what would your advice be regarding PMs and miners?

Q: Along the Carnac theme:
( Carnac places the envelope to his the side of his head)
Carnac: Hmm, Moe , Larry and Curly!!
(Carnac tears open the envelope and removes the note inside)
Carnac: What were the birthnames of Draghi, Bernanke and Yellen??

Sorry--had a couple of Chard's

Q: I am at a loss. Trump is failing. l see little chance of tax reform or infrastructure spending. Yet the market rise. Bad news is ignored. WTF is going on? Have we descended into the abyss?

Q: Steven Bregman's latest at Horizon on valuation, ETFs, etc. Some interesting stuff on how PEs are calculated at the index level, among other things.

2nd Quarter Commentary: July 2017

Q: Just read Mr.Skin's commentary on possibility of SPX 2,800 - 2,900.

A couples of questions:

1. Do you interpret the BOJ and ECB's statements last night and today as them admitting their policies have failed? (I do. That and $5 will buy a Starbuck's latte.)

2. Can gold and silver rally into the end of the year with SPX in the 2800s?

It seems so weird in the markets. VIX way down. TLT rallying. Real rates down. Base metals reflating. And, fingers crossed, gold and silver, doing OK; looking like the latest bottom is holding. I view stocks rallying as a reason for money managers to not buy gold; the no reason to worry. And jjust maybe we end up with a stealth type of rally in gold into the end of the year (w/ Bubblevision saying things like: Oh look at that, gold is up x% and stocks are up y%.)