Often wrong, never in doubt. – Bill Fleckenstein

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Fleck's Thoughts

Ask Fleck

Q: If the yuan adjustment was a shot across the bow as Grant’s friend suggested that it might be, wouldn’t that suggest that we are engaging/engaged in a currency war and therefore be bullish for precious metals? Thanks for your insight.

Q: Do gold and/or silver miners find much nickel as a byproduct?

Q: GLD, SLV, GDX, GDXJ, SIL, TLT all going from red up towards green.
SMH +2.4% @~113. Time to go long SMH Nov-Dec puts?

Q: Hi Bill,
As a long time believer in and holder of Gold and various Gold Miners, I can really appreciate the anxiety many of your readers are expressing about staying in the trade now that they are finally seeing some green on their screens. So, I thought I would share with the “Followers of Fleck” a little exercise that I just did to help get my head right.
I added up the current Market Capitalization of the largest 12 Publicly Traded Gold Miners that I could find (I could have easily missed one on my list). The total came to $159.913 Billion in Market Cap (please see list attached).
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) has a Market Cap of $1.06 Trillion. Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) has a Market Cap of $73.044 Billion which is greater than the combined Market Cap of the two largest Gold Mining Companies (Newmont Goldcorp and Barrick Gold Corporation) which is only $66.681 Billion.
The point of this exercise is to put into context just how small the current Market Cap of the Gold Mining Industry is in relationship to traditional equities. Can you imagine what would happen to the Market Cap of Gold Mining Companies should the “conventional wisdom” of money managers (mutual funds etc.) change to a default 2% to 5% allocation to Gold Miners in their portfolios?
This analysis gives me the intestinal fortitude to stay with the trade after many years of pain and suffering. Thanks!

P.S. The list would not fit into this little window. If you provide me with an email address where I can send it as an attachment, I will gladly forward it to you. Thanks!

Q: So as much as I despise Jim Cramer, he made a comment when I was driving in to work that I actually thought was funny and you would appreciate. He said something to the effect of, trading in the S&P is now hardly different than trading in soybean or corn. In other words, nothing matters other than price action...

Q: Bill,
one of your readers mentioned the lack of premium in MU options the other day. This creates opportunity to trade into expiration. I added to the Aug 25's yesterday at $2.80 and just sold them today at $3.65. if the premium was higher, I wouldn't have bothered. Also, at what gold price would NGD start to look attractive?

Q: Hey Bill,
Been around since 2008....thanks for all you do!!

I understand your concerns about the economy and markets and if they were "real" I think we would have seen a honest correction many years back. My thoughts moving forward are that Trump will simply NOT allow any meaningful correction. His ego is just TOO big and I`m certain he fancies himself the best "businessman" to ever hold the office. I think he has 4 cards he can play between now and the 2020 elections:
1. Strike a Trade Deal with China
2. Keep reducing Fed rates.
3.Legalize Marijuana
4. Sign a infrastructure deal

I think any or all of these would will cause a YUGE run up in the markets...do you agree??

After the 2020 election I think the bottom falls out....but that`s down the road.

Q: Bill: "SI seems a lot longer than 20 years ago, doesn't it?"
I started reading your SI comments after I bought PAAS at $2.50 +/-. I read something about you being on the board and having a "discussion" group on the internet via SI. Been through all of your discussions since then, no matter where I had to join to listen (read). Yes, it has been a long time. I don't mean this to be a discussion point, just a major thank you for all of your years of passion for what you do so well. I know it's helped many investors to see the broader view over these years. Just like me. Thank you! You are unique. BTW: since those days, PAAS has been in my portfolio... at different levels, but always there. It's not a stock to me. I feel like I own part of it.

Q: Fleck, what keeps you going? You can probably play all the tennis you want. Why deal with nutty markets and risk pulling your hair out and end up looking like the crazy dude on CNBC? Is everything for the sake of us Fleck-a-holics?

Q: Hi Bill,

Are your positive MSA comments referring to MSA Gold, Silver, and Mining Report, or MSA Full-Service Report, or MSA Premium, or some combination of these three?