| Index | Close | % Change |
|---|
| Dow | 38049.46 | 0.64 |
| Dow Transports | 15952.78 | 1.25 |
| Dow Utilities | 848.62 | 1.74 |
| S&P 500 | 4894.17 | 0.53 |
| Nasdaq | 15510.5 | 0.18 |
| Nasdaq 100 | 17516.99 | 0.1 |
| Russel 2000 | 1971.77 | 0.5 |
| VIX Index | 13.47 | 2.51 |
| 10 Year Gov't Yield | 4.13 | -1.25 |
| Spot Gold | 2019.33 | 0.27 |
| Spot Silver | 22.9 | 1.02 |
| GDX-Gold Miners | 28.25 | 1.99 |
| Crude Oil | 77.22 | 2.84 |
| Dollar Index | 103.53 | 0.29 |
| Euro Spot | 1.08 | -0.41 |
| Japanese 10 Year | 0.72 | 12.13 |
| Shanghai SE | 2906.11 | 3.03 |
| Long Bond 20-year | 119.94 | 0.6 |
|
Hot Air Is the Newest "Fundamental"
01-25-2024Today there was a bevy of macro data, probably the most talked about of which would be GDP, which was reported at 3.3% real GDP growth versus expectations of 2%. Of course, that's predicated on inflation only being 1.5% by the government's calculations versus the 3.5% or so that it has actually officially been running at (never mind what it really is). Thus, that 3.3% GDP growth was in reality something less than 1.5%.
"Anyone Who Isn't Confused Really Doesn't Understand the Situation"
I mostly bring this up as an intellectual exercise because, other than pushing around markets, macro data and bottoms-up data don't seem to matter too much to the overall market. In fact, one friend of mine on Twitter summarized this morning's data as follows:
"Summary of U.S. macro data this am: Q4 GDP blow-out beat BUT all trade and government, and spread with GDI widens to wides[t] unseen for over 50 years. Wholesale prices come hot too and GDP core PCE tops forecasts BUT price index slips. Jobless Initial and Continuous come higher, Durable Goods and Chicago Fed well below expectations. You're excused if you can't get your head around it all."
The Red Rose of Texas
In terms of the stock market, the mayhem caused by so much cumulative monetary abuse was on display again today, as IBM soared 10% thanks to winning at a convoluted version of beat-the-number and AI hype. While we continue to witness a slow melting of the stock prices of the vast majority of securities, a handful of momentum-oriented and mostly tech names keep getting spiked higher on the basis of literally nothing except a lot of hot air. As Texas Instruments demonstrated yesterday, even a disastrous earning reports matters little to today's "investors."
In any case, the net of all that was a gain of about 0.5% in the market through midday. In the afternoon, much of the early rally fizzled but the indices still ended modestly green. Away from stocks, green paper was higher, as was fixed income, while silver gained 1% compared to $5 for gold, with the miners mostly higher.
Positions in stocks mentioned: short TXN.