Daily Content
Fleck's Thoughts
IndexClose% Change
Dow Transports13846.940.46
Dow Utilities945.61-1.42
S&P 5004136.550.3
Nasdaq 10013413.510.55
Russel 20001761.311.18
VIX Index17.190.94
10 Year Gov't Yield3.50.84
Spot Gold2015.740.25
Spot Silver24.080.47
GDX-Gold Miners33.910.92
Crude Oil71.121.54
Dollar Index102.41-0.26
Euro Spot1.090.24
Japanese 10 Year0.4-0.75
Shanghai SE3310.741.17
Long Bond 20-year129.84-0.67

What, Me Worry?


The indices were about flat through midday, with nothing really to drive them one way or the other save for weakness in the bond market. At some point I have to believe that the debt ceiling machinations, which are going to be the most acrimonious ever, will have to weigh on the equity market. I just don't see how the two sides can reach any sort of a deal given the lack of real pressure and the extraordinary animosity between them.

I think the Democrats don't feel any pressure because the press will blame the Republicans no matter what, and the Republicans don't really have a good idea of what they want to do. Plus, McCarthy's sort of trapped by some of the more staunchly conservative Republicans.

Squeezing the Toothpaste at Both Ends The bottom line is that it will almost certainly take a certain amount of pressure from the financial markets to get any sort of a deal done that isn't just a 90-day can-kick, and I'm not even sure that's possible. Regardless, thus far it hasn't mattered, and of course once you get on the other side of that issue, I think the bond market is going to be in a world of hurt -- but that's not today's business.

In the afternoon, the market rallied and closed modestly higher. Away from stocks, fixed income was weaker, especially at the long end, green paper was a little lower as well, while silver gained 0.5% and gold $5. The miners were higher.