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Indices Keep On Holding On

06-23-2021

The indices traded not far from unchanged all day, finishing with the small changes that you see in the box scores. Away from stocks, green paper was slightly higher, fixed income was a little lower, while the metals were mixed: silver gained a little, gold did the opposite. The miners were lower.

Running Through the Top Signs On the topic of the stock market, one of the services that I take, from Milton Berg, which I've mentioned in the past, is flashing big indications of a market peak. I'm not putting much faith in this (yet) because nothing really seems to matter, but I've been taking the service for a couple of years and although he has been chopped up on various occasions, he's caught a lot of the action correctly.

While it seems completely impossible that the market might ever actually decline in a meaningful way (given everything that's occurred and has been discussed on this site), I'm pointing it out just in case he happens to be correct and folks have any trimming they want to do. I haven't taken any action on the short side yet on the back of this because the market could behave in such a way as to negate the signals that he has.

Make Sure to Get Off at the Next Intersection However, Mike Oliver also has some technical tripwires not too far below, so I thought that this would be worth pointing out, as there have been no occasions in the last few years when the work of the two of them has nearly coincided. I say "nearly" because it hasn't happened yet, but if a decline were to commence, it could almost only be violent because that's what would be required to get out of the band that we're in.

Should that develop, I would take some action, but I'm not intending to anticipate such a development because that has been a very bad idea for over a decade. I want to see what develops, but the bottom line is that it may pay to be more alert than usual in the next week or two.