| Index | Close | % Change |
|---|
| Dow | 39375.87 | 0.17 |
| Dow Transports | 15279.16 | -0.77 |
| Dow Utilities | 907.87 | 0.43 |
| S&P 500 | 5567.19 | 0.54 |
| Nasdaq | 18352.76 | 0.9 |
| Nasdaq 100 | 20391.97 | 1.02 |
| Russel 2000 | 2025.72 | -0.54 |
| VIX Index | 12.4 | 1.14 |
| 10 Year Gov't Yield | 4.28 | -1.89 |
| Spot Gold | 2388.84 | 1.36 |
| Spot Silver | 31.21 | 2.66 |
| GDX-Gold Miners | 36.27 | 2.81 |
| Crude Oil | 83.14 | -0.88 |
| Dollar Index | 104.87 | -0.25 |
| Euro Spot | 1.08 | 0.26 |
| Japanese 10 Year | 1.09 | -1.27 |
| Shanghai SE | 2949.93 | -0.26 |
| Long Bond 20-year | 118.72 | 0.61 |
|
Weakness Begets Fireworks
07-05-2024As everyone knows, Wednesday's shortened session had an appropriate amount of 4th of July fireworks after I'd said I expected not much to happen. The cause for the motion was a weak ISM survey and, despite the headline for today's nonfarm payroll of "beating expectations," the reality is that the last two months were revised lower by about 111,000 jobs, which now happens almost every month. Thus, I think markets are pricing in a slowdown to some degree, with certain markets anticipating more weakness (and subsequent consequences) than others.
Looking to Cut and Run
The stock market is hoping that weakness combined with lower recent inflation readings will lead to a Fed cut, which they assume will propel stocks higher, though in fact when cuts start (usually due to economic weakness), stocks decline. How that plays out in this phase of this cycle, however, we'll have to see.
In any case, the stock market was modestly higher through midday, with the Nasdaq gaining 0.75% despite the fact that almost all the AI proxies, particularly the chip sector, were weak. In the afternoon, the market pushed a little higher.
Away from stocks, green paper was slightly weaker while fixed income was quite strong. However, the real action was in the metals, which popped aggressively today after Wednesday's rally, with gold gaining over 1% and silver 3%.
Like Reading Invisible Tea Leaves
My friend, Fred Hickey, pointed out to me this morning that Sunday night we will get the regular announcement from Chinese authorities about how much gold they bought in the last month. Or they will not bother to admit to anything, just like last month, which caused gold to get blasted (even though in all likelihood, they're still buying gold). I will be interested to see what they say and how the market responds.
Lastly, turning to the miners, they decided to join the party to some degree, as they also did on Wednesday. That day, Wesdome reported high-grade drill results for Eagle River and the market seemed (correctly) impressed.
Positions in stocks mentioned: long WDOFF.