Fleck's Thoughts

A reader was kind enough to send in a collection of his favorite "thoughts" from Bill, which are reproduced here.

We'll know the bond market is really taking the printing press away when the Fed tries to ease again due to the stock market and/or the economy and the bond market weakens because it fears more subsequent inflation.

Confidence in the dollar is a big variable for gold over time.

The big passive bid that distorts markets most is the passive funds (think corporate target date retirement funds) run by Vanguard and BlackRock...They have their own weighting schemes and they buy companies, not ETFs.

The problem continues to be that not enough people care about metals because too many trust the Fed, despite all of the contrary evidence.

You can't be short long term, that won't work...You have to be tactical until we get much further down the road and the financial landscape has changed dramatically.

Almost all of the most valuable lessons for future successes come from losses or tough times, IMO.

BTW, you don't want to pick tops. Let them break first and then shoot them in the back.

As is often the case, making money on the downside is more about tactics than actual research, though you must get the research right, too, of course.

These midget interest rates can pop the bubbles that the Fed spawned and create stagflation or recession, but they won't break inflation, IMO.

Hindsight is undefeated though, so I wouldn't use that as a guide for the future.

The Fed has completely warped the economy and it is now dysfunctional due to their policies, they got away with it too long and now are trapped.

What I have underestimated is the gullibility of so many investors who seem unable to connect the dots.

As I have said countless times, when they say deflation they mean depression. The latter will cause the former, but the former itself can occur through productivity and isn't bad.

For me, price levels (i.e., 4,300 to 4,500) are not a great way to think about shorting. It's all about the setup, not some preset price level.

There is no sound paper currency, period.

Live your life, just make the best decisions you can based on data that you have. And don't let your life revolve around the idiots at the Fed.

Averaging down is OK when a position is small, but once it starts to be meaningful I don't like to average down.

In bear markets when stocks are oversold, regardless of how you define it, they usually just get weaker, unlike in a bull market.

The central banks and governments have kicked the can nearly as far as possible. It's about to be payback time.