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Second-Half Rebound Or Not?

Daily Rap 07-28-2014

The early going saw the indices a bit lower initially before they crawled back to near unchanged, with the Nasdaq the heaviest of the big three. Once the market got back to level, it basically stopped trading, and that is how it closed. Away from stocks, green paper, fixed income, and the metals were all a bit weaker.

This week has the potential to be volatile given the end-of-the-month tape-painting we often see, combined with the FOMC meeting (though what they will do is not in doubt) and Friday's nonfarm payroll report. I think expectations about the economy, as well as about what the stock market is going to deliver, are too high, but those that have such expectations are usually willing to give the second-half "rebound" plenty of time...more

Last year's posts for Ask Fleck

Q: Bill:

I have been trying to buy some of the SNDK $45 puts for a week now and it has been an exercise in utter futility. Not to give away your trading secrets, but do you just pay the ask price on long term put options when you want exposure/insurance? I have been trying to buy just 10 contracts to initiate a position and it has been real tough, even though that option contract has the most open interest for the deep out-of-the-money January 2016s. Thanks for your help and all you do!

Fleck: I nearly always just use market orders, which often means taking the offer. I very rarely try to buy on the bid or sell on the offer.
(posted: 7/25/2014)

Q: Recently Laurence Kotlikoff, professor of economics at Boston University, wrote an article in Forbes (and others) stating that one should "..not to invest in brokerage accounts, period." Do you agree or do you think he is way overstating the issue? If you agree, do you have generic recommendations?

Thanks in advance.

The Huge Hidden Risks To Your Brokerage Account -- Reply To SIPC's CEO

Fleck: I only skimmed this but I think he has gone overboard.
(posted: 7/25/2014)

Q: Just a suggestion. Why don`t we all chip in and pay you to stay at home and not go on vacation. We would all save alot of money...You`re the most reliable barometer I know of...

Fleck: It is just a weird set of circumstances.
(posted: 7/25/2014)

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