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Gold Goes Mainstream, Sort Of

Daily Rap 02-19-2019

The market shook off a modest overnight loss in the SPOOs and got itself back to unchanged by midday. From there, it kept climbing and with an hour to go, when I had to leave, the Nasdaq led the indices on the upside, as it gained 0.5%.

Away from stocks, green paper was weaker, fixed income was higher, and the metals gained 1%, with the miners really kicking into gear. In certain cases, they popped quite hard, and in others they were "merely" strong. It was probably one of the better days for them versus the price of gold in quite some time. It does seem that more folks are coming to the realization that gold has a place in their portfolio, not the least example of which was The Economist magazine last week, which penned a constructive article...more

Last year's posts for Ask Fleck

Q: Bill,
Why is PVG 2019 Outlook saying that they will come in at about 10.4 g/t? This is substantially below the 11.5 g/t of 4Q which in and of itself is lower than previous estimates. It is early morning and PVG has taken a substantial hit in price. At first I thought this was just do to earnings but they are higher than estimates but seem to be in line with the reduction in 4Q ounces of gold produced. I don't value gold miners based on earnings so I went to the website to see what they were saying about 2019. I'm becoming a little uncomfortable with the outlook but I can't tell if this is just a reaction on the part of management to the disappointing 4Q numbers. What is your take on the PVG Outlook?

Fleck: I'll cover it in today's column. I suspect they are being extra conservative, and the lower grade is a function of ramping up the mill and taking "lower grade" vs. what they had planned prior. I don't know why you don't consider earnings or cash flow, but that is your choice.
(posted: 2/15/2019)

Q: "Right now, it seems that New Gold will have a hard time to deal with its debt load. The $400 million revolving credit facility matures in August of 2021, senior unsecured notes worth $500 million mature in November of 2022, and senior unsecured notes worth $300 million mature in May of 2025. Especially the $900 million maturing in 2021 and 2022 will need to be refinanced, as at the current gold price and at the projected capital expenditures, the company has no chance of repaying it."

Since you and Fred are long NGD, what response do you have to the above?


PS. This learning to fish thing is taking a long time.

Fleck: I do not own NGD, I sold it around $2.50 and have not bought it back. Did you see what I said yesterday?
(posted: 2/15/2019)

Q: I love the "modern" in Modern Monetary Theory, as if to imply that "now we know better" and we're so much smarter than the "old days." While our science and medical knowledge has advanced by leaps & bounds, humans just haven't changed over the centuries. One thing I enjoyed about reading Ben Franklin's autobiography and books on Roman history is recognizing the EXACT same emotions and decision-making processes by humans back then as today. Economics isn't a pure science, as human emotions of fear & greed dynamically impact the results, and that's something the PhD wizards have always failed to model. There's nothing new in MMT that hasn't failed countless time before, but now that it's "modern" theory, I'm sure it'll be different this time!

BTW, this market is proving your case of how it'll be easier to make money being long the metals sector than short stocks. It'll sure be nice to eventually get to the failing rally AFTER QE is reintroduced to where it might be easier to short, too.

Fleck: Human nature never changes.
(posted: 2/15/2019)

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