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Miners Trick and Treat

Daily Rap 10-31-2019

Last night, three miners that I have positions in reported: Equinox, Alamos Gold, and Pretium. The former were both fine and don't really require a lot of discussion. Pretium, however, dropped a bomb in that the grade was 9.1 grams per tonne versus expectations of about 12, and the implications of that were less gold produced and higher costs.

The problem, of course, is that two weeks before the quarter ended, management reiterated its guidance. In other words, they misled everybody. The explanation in the press release about what exactly occurred didn't really make sense to me, so I'm not really sure what happened, but management has no credibility now. Having said that, if the company can produce 400,000 ounces per year (based on 9 grams per...more

Last year's posts for Ask Fleck

Q: There seems to be a disconnect between what Mr. Skin and MSA believe. Mr. Skin thinks the market is mostly safe until the election, whereas MSA thinks the risks are increasing for a big downside.

How do you reconcile these opposing views?

Fleck: MSA has said IF the market declines much, it could trigger some serious downside momentum, and that the new highs have been labored. But for his work to matter, we need some downside, which we have not seen.

So they could both be correct, if we keep grinding higher.
(posted: 10/30/2019)

Q: Bill,

You missed an opportunity! In response to the reader commenting about the astronomical increases in his property taxes and health insurance premiums, you forgot to point out how convenient it is that neither one of those makes it into the official measures of inflation! (Even though they represent probably 25% of median income).

And even worse, if my memory serves me correctly, the healthcare premiums cause DEFLATION in the wage growth data because they aren't included (and employers can't raise wages due to healthcare cost inflation).

Fleck: Thanks for having my back, well done :)
(posted: 10/30/2019)

Q: Thank you Bill for your response to the commenter who said: "Trump does not deserve the benefit of the doubt".

I agree with your point about the insane media polarization in the last 3.5 yrs. I'm an independent, but I had no problem watching CNN or reading the NY Times during the Bush I, Clinton, Bush II, or Obama admin. But these media organizations really started losing their minds once Trump got the nomination in spring of 2016. And I can hardly even stand to read them anymore due to the shocking level of bias, half truths, and one-sidedness. And I'm not even a big Trump fan. He certainly deserves his share of criticism, but the left media has become totally obsessed with Trump hate.

Fleck: The New York Times used to be my favorite paper by a mile until about two years ago. Same with CNN for news. Now neither are useful as they are so biased, I can't tell fact from fiction, just like with Trump himself.

The media have stooped down to Trump's level, maybe even lower, if that's possible. They should have just taken the high road by reporting the news objectively and left Trump to do the name calling.
(posted: 10/30/2019)

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