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A Dull Day Ahead of NFP
Daily Rap 03-07-2013
Overnight markets were slightly higher as the BOE and ECB meetings came and went with not much new news other than some body English, particularly on the part of the British (no pun intended), that more measures are likely to be forthcoming to help stimulate the economy. As for Draghi, he mentioned that a rate cute was discussed at today's meeting, though they did nothing.
The morning also saw the release of some macro data that were essentially a nonevent, and had nothing to do with the fact that our market was modestly higher out of the starting gate once again. (The proximate cause for that is most likely the same as it has been: money printing and the excitement of the crowd.)
After the initial push higher, the indices drifted sideways and were...more
Last year's posts for Ask Fleck
Stan Druckenmiller said today that "it is going to end very badly". "This is going to end in one of two ways... either mal-investment (bubble) bust or inflation. It is "very binary outcome".
What is your split for these 2 outcomes? 50/50?
If we have another bubble bust with NO inflation? What is the implication on Gold?
As far as I understand, currency debasement is not enough to create inflation. We also need a "supply shock"!
Fleck: I'd guess 100% chance we have lots of inflation. We can't have NO inflation, we already have it. We don't need a shock. Don't you shop or pay bills?
Q: Hello Bill,
Paul Kasriel is no longer with Northern Trust But he still Blogs. His blog site is this:
The 2013 Economic Outlook -- Bright Sunshine for the U.S., Periods of Cloud Abroad
He did not say anything about gold but he did say:
--" QE will be highly Stimulative"
-- " The fed will be forced to raise rates in 2014"
-- " The behavior of Bond yields in 2014 will Rhyme with if not repeat their 1994 behavior" [ the yields doubled ]
He is also bullish on Japan.
Thanks for the site.
Fleck: Thanks. He is a very fine economist, one of the few.
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