Are you a subscriber? You need to LOG IN to see today's content.
The free preview lets you access all content over a year old – the Market Rap from one year ago today is posted below.
Subscribers get full access to premium site content such as the Market Rap and daily Q&A, with the opportunity to "Ask Fleck" your own questions.
Learn more about Bill and what's available on the site.
Dullness
Daily Rap 03-22-2024
The indices were not too far from unchanged through midday, though beneath the surface there was a fair amount of motion. There were no huge moves, but smaller-cap stocks, which have done a little bit better lately, seemed to be sort of uniformly weak (not that it matters much in the big picture). In the afternoon, the market was a little bit weaker.
Away from stocks, fixed income bounced, as did green paper, while the metals were weaker, with silver losing a nickel and gold 0.75%. The miners were lower.
What's Up, DOC?
It would appear that the metals complex is going to experience some kind of a correction. Thus, I think the real question is, given the similarity between Wednesday night's action and the maneuver in early December, will we see a fast, deep drawdown...more
Last year's posts for Ask Fleck
Q: Motivations are hard to ascribe sometimes. But if you look at Chairman Powell’s background, a good chunk of his career was at Carlyle Group in private equity. If there is one asset class that is over invested in by institutional investors, it is P/E.
To quote Dan Rasmussen at Verdad, “Exits are falling and interest costs are rising, but what about portfolio company financials?” He talks about how exits are down 66% since 2021 and 44% from 2022. The most levered companies are P/E companies and most of these are funded with floating debt.
Maybe it is not the public markets Powell is worried about. A slowing economy coupled with higher for longer is not a great recipe for over leveraged portfolios.
Fleck: The Fed doesn't know anything special at all. I have documented it repeatedly. I agree there is plenty of trash in LBO land. IMO, that is not why the Fed is dovish.
(posted: 3/22/2024)
Q: Are this weeks GLD flows just noise or a positive step forward?
Fleck: Positive for sure -- assuming that they continue.
(posted: 3/22/2024)
Q: Hi Bill,
A few articles talked of a surprise rate cut by the Swiss Central Bank this week as if it would move markets in a big way. Has anyone in your circles (like James Aitken) noted this move to be of any significance?
Seems like more of wash, rinse, repeat all over again.
Fleck: No one has even mentioned it except in passing. I think your conclusion is correct.
(posted: 3/22/2024)
more Ask Fleck...