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Fleck's Thoughts

Fleck's Thoughts

A reader was kind enough to send in a collection of his favorite "thoughts" from Bill, which are reproduced here.

  • The money printing we are seeing in the last five years has NEVER happened before, so trying to know in advance what the unintended consequences may be is very difficult. Many markets have been shredded, with the exception of stocks and bonds, but it will happen to them too at some point.
  • How well you do when shorting is a function of if you're right, what the expectations are, how crowded it is, and the macro environment.
  • Colored paper is convenient, but it is also worthless.
  • Fear doesn't arrive until well into a bear market, not at tops.
  • Options are just a tool to help manage risk, they are no solution to the moneymaking equation.
  • The "big banks" aren't in control of gold, that is an urban legend.
  • You can't really be long or short stocks or bonds, which leaves metals and other non-traditional ideas. But I can say that any position size over 5%-10% means that you must be really careful with those positions.
  • As long as folks believe that central banks are the answer to any and all problems, the financial environment we have been seeing will continue to be with us. All anyone wants to do currently is party with the central banks.
  • I am not a fan of averaging down on existing positions on bad news.
  • Never, ever short a stock simply because it is too expensive. Am I clear about that?
  • Shorting into strength blindly is a terrible idea. It may work once in a while, but it is a great way to get wiped out.
  • I only want to sell a weaker tape, back under the 200 day, or weaker. Weaker is better, strength is not.
  • It isn't always easy to admit it, but we all make mistakes and if you don't admit them you can't learn from them, and then you're doomed.